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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 2, 2025

 

MUMBAI – In its fortnightly report on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintained that the El Nino–Southern Oscillation remains neutral and is expected to remain that way until at least August. The bureau noted that neither the El Nino nor La Nina was likely during this period, aligning with the predictions from other international models it reviewed.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (-) 0.18 degrees Celsius as of Sunday, suggesting neutral conditions. For La Nina to emerge, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

Though the Indian Ocean Dipole is at 0.74 degrees Celsius, making it a positive index reading, it is expected to return to neutral values in April and remain so until at least August, the bureau said. There has been significant cooling in the eastern Indian Ocean Dipole region over the past week, which has contributed to this positive index value. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (?) 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.

 

According to the bureau, global sea surface temperatures remain substantially above average, and in Australia, they were the warmest on record in February since 1900. Each month in 2025 has been the second warmest recorded for its respective month, only slightly cooler than 2024, it said.  

 

The India Meteorological Department also ruled out the probability of an El Nino event despite above-normal temperatures predicted for the summer season in the country. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions are likely to prevail in April, May, and June, after which weak La Nina conditions could prevail, the Indian weather agency said in its monthly outlook on Monday.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

 

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