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Informist, Friday, Mar. 28, 2025

 

MUMBAI - Automobile wholesale sales for March would have likely witnessed a slowdown across segments, except tractors, Nomura Equity Research said in a report. However, Indian passenger vehicle companies will likely see some improvement towards the month-end on the back of pre-buying due to price hike announcements and the Navratri festival, which begins from Mar. 30 this year compared to Apr. 9 in 2024, the brokerage firm said. 

 

The passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments will likely post a flat year-on-year growth, respectively, in March, whereas sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles are expected to fall 3% on year, Nomura said. Tractor wholesale sales, on the other hand, are likely to deviate from the flow as they are expected to post a 24% on-year growth on the back of positive rural prospects due to improved crop prices and good reservoir levels. The research firm expects M&M's tractor volumes to increase 18% on year in March to 30,700 units.

 

Sales of passenger vehicles rose 1.9% on year in the previous month to 377,689 units and that of three-wheelers rose 4.7% to 57,788 units, whereas two-wheeler sales fell 9% to 1.38 million units.

 

Passenger vehicle March wholesale sales are expected to come in at around 368,000 units against 368,086 units a year ago. Retail demand pressure has led to a further increase in the channel inventory, the report said. The segment's retail sales would have likely fallen 16% on year during the month. Improvement in demand might only be visible by the second half of 2025, led by lower income tax and reduced interest rates, the brokerage said, adding that it expects the segment's sales to grow 5% in the coming financial year. This is, however, higher than the 1-1.5% projection given by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

 

While Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.'s domestic utility vehicle wholesale volumes are seen rising on year, Tata Motors Ltd.'s passenger vehicle volumes are expected to fall in March. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.'s passenger vehicle wholesale volumes in India, on the other hand, are expected to remain flat on year at 153,000 units in March, while exports are seen up 27% to 33,000 units, Nomura said. The wholesale market share of the company would have likely contracted 100 basis points from the previous month to 41.6%, whereas its retail market share is expected at 38.6%.

 

M&M's utility vehicle sales are expected to have risen to 46,000 units, up 13% on year, on the back of ramp-up in production of newly launched electric vehicles, and Thar ROXX, and XUV 3X0, Nomura said. Tata Motors' passenger vehicles domestic sales for March are seen down 8% on year at 46,000 units and Hyundai Motor India Ltd.'s domestic sales for the month are expected to fall 15% on year to 45,000 units. Hyundai Motor's overseas dispatches are also seen falling 1% on year for the month, Nomura said. 

 

TWO- THREE-WHEELERS

Wholesale sales volumes for the two-wheeler segment are seen flat on year at 1.5 million units in March. Apart from wholesale numbers, registrations are seen down 13%, Nomura said, and added that the segment might continue to see a slowdown in demand. Original equipment manufacturers have raised prices to pass on the cost due to compliance with On-Board Diagnostics Phase 2B norms, the brokerage said. Nomura expects the segment to post a 10% growth in the current financial year and a 7% growth in the coming financial year, which could have some downside risks.

 

Bajaj Auto Ltd. is expected to post mixed growth in sales as higher two-wheeler overseas dispatches will likely be offset by a fall in domestic two-wheeler sales. The company's domestic two-wheeler sales are seen down 10% on year at 165,000 units, whereas the segment's exports are expected to rise 11%, according to Nomura's report. The Pune-based company would have likely registered a 7% growth in its domestic three-wheeler dispatches and a 3% growth in its overseas dispatches, the brokerage said. Overall, the company's total wholesale volumes for March are expected to remain flat on year at 365,000 units.

 

Nomura said Eicher Motors Ltd. would have likely sold 95,000 Royal Enfield motorcycles in March, up 26% on year and Hero MotoCorp Ltd.'s sales would have likely risen just 2% on year during the month to 500,000 units. TVS Motor Co. Ltd., on the other hand, is expected to post a 6% increase in its domestic sales of 278,000 units, including three-wheelers. The company's exports are seen up 19% for the month at 109,000 units. M&M's three-wheeler domestic wholesale volumes for the month are seen up 23% on year. 

 

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

While limited infrastructure-related activities and capital expenditure spends had earlier impacted demand for commercial vehicles, the segment has shown a relatively better performance due to improvement in capex and demand from the tipper segment. The segment's wholesale sales are seen down 4% on year and its registrations are also seen down 5% on year in March.

 

Ashok Leyland Ltd.'s total wholesale volumes are expected to fall 2% on year to 22,500 units in March. Tata Motors' total commercial vehicles wholesale volume is also seen down over 8% on year to 37,500 units in March. However, Eicher Motors' commercial vehicle segment is expected to remain flat on year at 11,300 units.  End

 

Reported by Aman Aryan

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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