Weather Patterns
Australia Met dept sees no possibility of El Nino, La Nina till August
This story was originally published at 13:56 IST on 20 March 2025
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MUMBAI – The El Nino–Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific is expected to remain neutral until August, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly forecast on Wednesday. There is no indication of either El Nino or La Nina during this period, which is consistent with all the other international models reviewed by the bureau.
As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation was 0.14 degrees Celsius, remaining firmly within the neutral range, and reaching a positive value for the first time since August 2024. For La Nina to emerge, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, the temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier weather in India while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.
The bureau said the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, with the index at 0.21 degrees Celsius as of Sunday. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a positive index, and values below (?) 0.4 degrees Celsius as typical of a negative index.
According to the bureau, global sea surface temperatures remain substantially above average, and in Australia, they were the warmest on record in February since 1900. Each month in 2025 has been the second warmest recorded for its respective month, only slightly cooler than 2024, it said. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Subhojit Sarkar
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