More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 19, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – Indian benchmark indices are likely to open a tad higher Thursday but may come under pressure as the Nifty 50 nears the key resistance level of 23000 points, analysts said. The direction of the indices will also depend on the comments of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after the monetary policy decision. Investors will keenly watch out for comments on the economic growth, recession, and US inflation, analysts said.

The Nifty 50 had bottomed out at 21900 points earlier this month, after which it consolidated within 22300-22500 points, Jigar Patel, technical analyst at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said. The Nifty 50 had a break-out Tuesday and extended its rise on Wednesday, he said. There could be a pull-back Thursday as the 50-stock index is nearing its key resistance of 23000-23100 points, he said. He expects Nifty 50 to find support at 22800-22600 points. Volatility in the market is unlikely on Thursday despite the weekly expiry day of the derivatives contracts of the Nifty 50, he said.

Domestic benchmark indices closed higher for the third consecutive day Wednesday. The Nifty 50 closed 0.3% higher at 22907.60 points and the BSE Sensex closed 0.2% higher at 75449.05 points. 

"Technically, Nifty 50 found the support around 22800 points and formed a small green candle on daily scale, indicating strength," Hrishikesh Yedve, assistant vice president of technical and derivatives research at Asit C. Mehta Intermediates, said in a note. The recent breakout point of 22800 points will provide immediate support for the index followed by 22700 points, he said. However, the index will likely face resistance at 23000 points, which will serve as a short-term barrier, Yedve said. Considering the overall positive momentum, traders are advised to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy in the short term, he said.

The US Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, though the committee is expected to hold rates steady, Fed fund futures are pricing in three rate cuts in 2025. Investors will likely watch out for cues on future rate cuts in Powell's statements given the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies, analysts said. 

After its January meeting, the US Fed's policymakers said while there was a lot of uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's plans, the economy looked strong and poised for continued growth amid slowing inflation, according to a Reuters report. "Trump is engineering a 'trade shock' that will drop the economy to a lower growth path," Reuters quoted Steven Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, as saying. "There is little monetary policy can do to offset a trade shock through tariffs... except to counter rising unemployment and/or inflation, and the economy could end up with both," he said.

Back home, traders expect a rate cut in April as domestic inflation has come below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4% in February. On-target headline inflation, below-trend economic growth, and high real rates mean current policy rates are restrictive, Nomura Global Markets Research said. The brokerage expects the central bank to cut the key interest rate by 75 basis points to 5.50% by the end of 2025, with a 25 bps cut each in April, June, and August.  End

US$1 = INR 86.44

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.