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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 19, 2025

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert is in the 'inactive' mode, suggesting neutral conditions in Apr-Sept, with the chances decreasing to 49% from 74.1%, according to the monthly outlook released on Monday. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation Nuetral conditions generally mean near-average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall in India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions over India.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.2 degrees Celsius in April, with a gradual increase to 0.1 degrees Celsius by September, the climate centre said. For La Nina to emerge, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to be near normal along the equator during Apr-Jun, and gradually increase for the remaining period thereafter, the climate centre said. A negative anomaly refers to cooler than average temperatures on the ocean's surface, while a positive anamoly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value.

For Apr-Jun, the centre forecasts above-normal temperatures for the Arctic, Pacific, north Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Arabic Sea, Eurasia, central and northern Africa, southern US, central South America, and Mexico. The probability for above-normal temperatures in these regions is 70% or more. The probability for above-normal temperatures in central Asia, Australia, southern Africa, and southern South America lies between 50% and 70%.    

During Jul-Sept, above-normal temperatures with a probability of more than 70% are likely over the Arcitic, Pacific, North Atlantic, Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, east Asia, southeast Asia, central Asia, West Asia, Europe, northern Africa, US, Canada, Mexico, and the central and northern region of South America.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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