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Informist, Thursday, Mar. 13, 2025

MUMBAI – Shares of metal companies are expected to be in a range next week owing to a lack of major positive or negative triggers. If there is an announcement of a price hike, then the Nifty Metal can be expected to rise 1% next week, a research analyst tracking the metal sector said. But any news of fresh US tariffs could make the index fall 1%, the analyst said.

Another positive trigger for the sector would be the imposition of the much-anticipated safeguard duty, another research analyst tracking the sector said. Both analysts were of the view that US President Donald Trump's tariffs on the sector may create volatility and have an indirect effect on the domestic market. South-East Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan, and China may re-route their steel products to India from the US, they said.

Domestic demand for steel is likely to remain robust in the near term, driven by increased infrastructure activity, seasonal demand from the white goods industry, reduced imports, and anticipation of safeguard duty imposition, Elara Securities said in a research report Wednesday. This should support domestic steel prices in the short term, the brokerage said.

With other countries taking protectionist measures, there is a likelihood of higher exports from China getting diverted into India if there is no safeguard duty, Elara Securities said. Steel traders expect a decline in domestic prices if the safeguard duty is not imposed. Additionally, the recent drop in international iron ore and coking coal prices may exert downward pressure on global steel prices. On the non-ferrous front, falling prices of thermal coal could help ease cost pressures for aluminium manufacturers, Elara Securities said.

Aluminium prices have remained strong at over $2,600 per tonne, significantly above the 10-year average of $2,100 per tonne due to lower inventory levels, JM Financial said in a research report Wednesday. This has boosted margins for Hindalco Industries' aluminium business in India with earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation per tonne at $1,500 per tonne in the December quarter, up $600 per tonne on year, the brokerage said. This trend is expected to continue with subdued coal prices alongside elevated metal prices, JM Financial said.

The Nifty Metal index fell 1.7% this week. In comparison, the index had risen 8.6% the previous week. Support for the Nifty Metal index next week is seen at 8680-8600 points and resistance is pegged at 8965-9050 points, Vipin Kumar, assistant vice-president, technical and derivatives research, at Globe Capital Market, said. Shares of Steel Authority of India fell 4.5% this week, while those of JSW Steel declined 1%. On the other hand, shares of Hindustan Zinc rose 0.2%, becoming the sole gainer in the index this week.

TOP HEADLINES
* India's aluminium sector more vulnerable than steel to US tariffs: Experts
* ET Now: US tariff not to impact India steel sector much, says steel secy
* India Ratings sees global oversupply of steel persisting in 2025
* Hind Zinc, Serentica Renewables ink pact to augment renewable energy supply
* India Bond Placements: Hindustan Zinc to issue NCDs worth up to INR 5 bln
* TEXT: CARE cuts rating on Sivana Steel and Power's cash credit to B from BB-
* JSW Steel's Feb consol crude steel production 2.41 mln tn, up 12% on year
* Shyam Metalics stainless steel Feb sales 8,552 tn, up 110% YoY, down 5% MoM

Following are the resistance and support levels for the sector's key stocks for next week, as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

End

Reported by Akshita Kumar
Edited by Rajeev Pai

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