Informist Poll
India's WPI inflation seen inching up to 2.4% in Feb from 2.31% in Jan
This story was originally published at 17:08 IST on 13 March 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - India's wholesale inflation is expected to have risen marginally in February to 2.4% from 2.31% the previous month, according to an Informist poll of 13 economists. WPI inflation stood at 0.20% in February 2024.
Economists' estimates of WPI inflation last month ranged from 2.0% to 2.8%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for February at 1200 IST on Monday.
Wholesale inflation is likely to have inched up in February on account of "some uptick" in manufactured products inflation, with food inflation expected to have stayed benign, Teresa John, deputy head of research and economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, said in a report.
Inflation for manufactured products, which account for nearly two-thirds of the WPI, rose to a two-year high of 2.51% in January, helping push up core WPI inflation to a six-month high of 0.9%. Nirmal Bang's John sees core inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--rising to 1.4% in February.
To be sure, S&P Global's Purchasing Mangers' Index manufacturing survey, released earlier this month, showed input cost inflation eased in February to its lowest level in a year.
On the food side, momentum in wholesale prices likely declined further in February after the WPI food index fell 2.3% month-on-month in January. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomato, onion, and potato declined 27.2%, 7.4%, and 18.1%, respectively, in February from the previous month. Prices of pulses and rice continued to cool sequentially, while those of wheat and edible oils rose.
While wholesale inflation remains below its retail counterpart, the wedge between the two has narrowed substantially in recent months, with data released Wednesday showing CPI inflation fell to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February. Since October, headline retail inflation has crashed by 260 basis points, while WPI inflation--should it come in at 2.4% in February--would only be lower by 35 bps over the same period.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in February:
| ORGANISATION | WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| CareEdge Ratings | 2.0% |
| India Ratings and Research | 2.0% |
| Union Bank of India | 2.0% |
| ICICI Securities Primary Dealership | 2.3% |
| ICRA | 2.3% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 2.31% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services | 2.4% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 2.4% |
| Acuite Ratings and Research | 2.5% |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 2.5% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 2.6% |
| YES Bank | 2.6% |
| Nomura | 2.8% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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