US EIA expects Brent crude to average $75 per bbl in third quarter of 2025
This story was originally published at 12:26 IST on 12 March 2025
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MUMBAI – The US Energy Information Administration expects the Brent crude oil price to average $75 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025 (Jul-Sept), as decreasing crude oil production in Iran and Venezuela would lower global oil inventories in the second quarter of the year. The agency had earlier forecast Brent crude oil price to average $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025.
"Our expectation that inventory draws will continue through mid-2025 is in part due to the recent announcements concerning sanctions on Iran and the revoked license for Venezuela's production and exports to the US," the agency said.
Crude oil prices fell during February and were near $70 per barrel in the first week of March, mainly due to concerns about economic growth amid the tariffs by the US and other trade partners. "...the implementation of tariffs for most imports from Mexico and Canada have been delayed until early April, so the effects of those potential tariffs are not reflected in this outlook," EIA said.
However, oil inventories will gradually rise and put downward pressure on crude oil prices in late 2025 and through 2026 due to an increase in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, and production growth from non-OPEC nations.
Eight member nations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to proceed with the gradual unwinding of the voluntary production cuts from Apr. 1. "...we still anticipate OPEC+ members will produce less than the organization's announced targets to limit increases in global oil inventories," EIA said.
The agency expects the production growth will be led by countries outside of the OPEC and its allies, such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. These nations will increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1 million barrels per day in 2026. The agency expects OPEC and its allies to produce less than 200,000 barrels per day of oil this year, after which it sees an increase of 500,000 barrels per day in 2026.
US crude oil production in 2025 is seen marginally higher at 13.61 million barrels per day, compared to 13.59 million barrels per day projected last month. In 2026, production by the world's biggest oil producer is seen rising to 13.76 million barrels per day, the report said.
The agency expects Brent Crude prices on the Intercontinental Exchange to average $68.47 per barrel in 2026 against its previous forecast of $66.46 per barrel. It slightly decreased its forecast for Brent Crude prices to $74.22 per barrel this year, against $74.50 per barrel projected last month.
As for West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the US energy agency has marginally raised its estimate for 2025 to $70.68 per barrel from last month's projection of $70.62 per barrel. In 2026, the agency expects West Texas Intermediate crude prices to average $64.97 per barrel compared with its previous estimate of $62.46 per barrel.
Global consumption of liquid fuels is forecast to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with India leading global oil demand growth, the report said. Consumption of liquid fuels in India is expected to rise by 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 as well as in 2026, driven by rising demand for transportation fuels.
The agency expects China's petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to grow by 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 200,000 barrels per day in 2026, as Beijing's economic stimulus efforts drive higher demand growth, it said.
At 1150 IST, the price of Brent Crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was $69.86 per barrel and the price of West Texas Intermediate crude on NYMEX was $66.57 per barrel. End
US$1 = INR 87.25
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Ashutosh Pati
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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