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Informist, Friday, Mar. 7, 2025

 

By Shubham Rana

 

NEW DELHI – India's industrial output likely rose 3.5% year-on-year in January from December's three-month low of 3.2%, according to 14 economists polled by Informist. Industrial growth, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, was 4.2% in January 2024.

 

Economists' estimates for IIP growth in January ranged from 3.0% to 4.4%. The statistics ministry will release IIP data for January at 1600 IST Wednesday. Starting next month, IIP data will be released with a lag of four weeks instead of the current practice of six weeks. However, it is not clear at the moment if IIP data for February will be released in late March or the second week of April.

 

In January, IIP growth is seen slightly higher from December as most high-frequency indicators point to an up-tick in factory production in the first month of 2025. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, for instance, rose to a six-month high of 57.7 in January, while the number of e-way bills generated increased 23.1%, the highest year-on-year growth since October 2023. Vehicle production also picked up in January, rising 9.3% compared to 1.3% growth in December.

 

Meanwhile, growth in the output of the eight core industries--which accounts for over 40% of the total weight of the IIP--moderated slightly in January to 4.6% from 4.8% in December.

 

"Electricity production slowed to 1.3% YoY (year-on-year) in January from 6.2% in December. However, petroleum refinery output was up 8.3% YoY in January on a low base although down by 1.3% MoM (month-on-month)," noted Teresa John, deputy head of research and economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities. "Cement production rose sharply and stood at 14.5% YoY in January vs 4.6% in December. But steel production slowed to 3.7% in January vs. 7.3% in December."

 

The following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in January:

 

ORGANISATION	IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE
HDFC Bank	3.0%
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities	3.2%
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership	3.3%
ANZ Banking Group	3.4%
ICRA	3.4%
Acuite Ratings and Research	3.5%
India Ratings and Research	3.5%
Nomura	3.5%
QuantEco Research	3.5%
YES Bank	3.5%
Standard Chartered	3.7%
STCI Primary Dealer	3.7%
Motilal Oswal Financial Services	4.4%
Sunidhi Securities	4.4%

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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