Australia weather dept sees El Nino Southern Oscillation neutral till July
This story was originally published at 13:31 IST on 7 March 2025
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MUMBAI – The El Nino–Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific remains neutral, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly forecast on Wednesday. There is no possibility of either El Nino or La Nina until at least July, which is consistent with all the other international models surveyed by the bureau.
The El Nino–Southern Oscillation has remained neutral for the past six months, despite a brief period from December to February when the tropical Pacific shifted towards a La Nina-like state. However, these signs have not met the La Nina thresholds, the bureau said.
As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation was (-)0.3 degrees Celsius, which is firmly within the neutral range. For La Nina to emerge, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius, and for El Nino, the temperatures should meet or rise above 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall.
The bureau said the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa.
The bureau further said that global sea surface temperatures remain substantially above average, and in Australia, they were the warmest on record in February since 1900. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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