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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025

NEW DELHI – The International Sugar Organization has forecast the global sugar deficit at a nine-year high of 4.88 million tonnes in 2024-25 (Oct-Sep). In November, the international body had projected a deficit of 2.51 million tonnes for the current sugar year ending September. "A global deficit of this magnitude has not been seen for nine years," it said. 

This is the second estimate by the world sugar body for 2024-25. The sugar deficit is the difference between forecast world consumption and production. The world production outlook for 2024-25 is seen 3.2% down at 175.5 million tonnes, while consumption is seen 0.25% higher at 180.4 million tonnes, it said. 

Sugar output is seen lower amid declining production in major sugar-producing countries. "Drivers include smaller post-October production totals in major southern hemisphere producing regions, lower-than-expected production in India and Pakistan, and a lower cane total in Thailand," it said.

The global sugar body has lowered import demand for 2024-25 to 63.3 million tonnes, down 8.4% from 69.1 million tonnes last year. It has also lowered export availability to 62.6 million tonnes, down 10% from 69.6 million tonnes last year. 

The ending stock for 2024-25 is seen 4.3% lower at 93.6 million tonnes. The stocks-consumption ratio is also seen down at 51.8% in the current season from 54.3% in the last season. "The ratio is helped somewhat by the decline in projected consumption growth, the denominator in this ratio, but with stocks often held in-country for cyclical reasons, such as to satisfy offseason demand, the decline in the ratio to around the same level as the 2015-16 low is noteworthy," the world sugar body said. 

On prices, the organisation has a neutral to bullish outlook over the next three months amid forecasts of a larger global deficit, it said. Potential pressure on speculative shorts to buy back their positions also contributes to this outlook, it added. 

Over the past three months, global sugar prices have declined. "The ISA daily price and the ISO white sugar price index for the first 19 days of February averaged USD 18.79 cents per lb (pound) and USD 524.36 per tonne, respectively," it said. 

For 2024-25, the global body sees India's sugar production at 27.3 million tonnes, while consumption is seen at 28.6 million tonnes. It sees India's net exports at 2.3 million tonnes and ending stock at 10.9 million tonnes. In top producer Brazil, production is seen at 42.53 million tonnes and exports are seen at 32.1 million tonnes.
 

ETHANOL 

Global ethanol production reached 118.5 billion litres in 2024, up substantially from 112.8 billion litres in 2023. "The US achieved a record output of 61.33 billion litres despite modest domestic demand growth, leveraging competitive pricing to capture unprecedented export volumes," the sugar body said. India demonstrated remarkable growth in ethanol output through a strategic pivot toward grains-based production, it added. 

Global ethanol consumption rose to 117.4 billion litres in 2024, up from 109.1 billion litres in 2023. Brazil and India increased ethanol consumption by 5.1 billion litres and 2.3 billion litres, respectively. "Looking ahead to 2025, production is projected to climb to 120.7 billion litres and consumption to 119.5 billion litres, supported by expanding blend mandates and strengthening policy frameworks across major markets," it said.  End

US$1 = INR 87.20

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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