Climate Forecast
APEC Climate Center sees El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral in Mar-Aug
This story was originally published at 13:10 IST on 18 February 2025
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MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center sees neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions in Mar-Aug, with the chance starting at 66% and decreasing to 58.8%, according to the monthly outlook released Monday. The report said Nino 3.4 index is expected to be (-)0.4 degress Celsius for March and gradually increase to 0.2 degrees Celsius for August.
The climate centre said the sea suface temperatures for the equatorial pacific are expected to be negative for Mar-May, which means cooler than normal temperatures would prevail. This could be linked to a La Nina event. However, the centre said sea surface temperatures are expected to weaken and approach at near-normal temperatures during Apr-Jun. This indicates that cooler sea surface temperatures would subside during Apr-Jun.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Nuetral conditions it generally means near-average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rains in India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions over India.
It also forecast that there is a tendency for above normal precipitation over India, Bay of Bengal, Alaska, Arctic, eastern Russia, and east Asia during Jun-Aug. The probability for the above normal rainfall in Jun-Aug lies at 40-50%.
During Mar-May, the centre forecast above normal temperatures for the Arctic, Pacific, north Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Eurasia, central southern Africa, southern South America, and Mexico. The probability for above normal temperatures over these regions is 70% or more. The probability for above normal temperatures over central Asia, southern Australia, northern Africa, and southern South America lies between 50%-70%.
During Jun-Aug above normal temperatures with probability of more than 70% are likely over the Pacific, North Atlantic, Arabian Sea, eastern Indian Ocean, east Asia, southeast Asia, central Asia, West Asia, Europe, northern Africa, USA, Mexico, and middle and northern region of South America. End
Reported by J. Navya Sruthi
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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