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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has kept the forecasts for growth in global crude oil demand for 2025 unchanged at 1.4 million barrels per day. The global oil demand in 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day from the previous year, also unchanged from the previous month, OPEC said in its January Oil Market Report.

 

The cartel has kept its forecast for crude oil demand for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development unchanged at 100,000 barrels per day. For non-OECD, the demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 million barrels per day. This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026, it said.

 

Crude oil production in January from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation--OPEC and allies--fell by 118,000 barrels per day to 40.62 million barrels per day, according to secondary sources. 

 

Supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is estimated to have expanded by 1.0 million barrels per day in 2025, down by 100,000 barrels per day from last month's assessment, to 53.2 million barrels per day. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is also forecast at 1.0 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the US, Brazil and Canada.

 

Similarly, OECD supply is expected to increase next year by 500,000 barrels per day, and non-OECD output is set to expand by 400,000 barrels per day. The main drivers for the liquid supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil and Canada. At the same time, Norwegian production is forecast to see the largest drop. Supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation in 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.0 million barrels per day to an average of 55.2 million barrels per day.

 

India's oil demand in 2025 is seen at 5.79 million barrels per day unchanged from previous month estimates, up from 5.55 million barrels per day in 2024, OPEC said. In 2026, the country is expected to consume 6.06 million barrels per day of oil, up 4.7% on year from 2025.

 

Saudi Arabia's January oil output is seen at 8.9 million barrels per day, down 13,000 barrels per day from the previous month and Libya's January oil output at around 1.3 million barrels per day, up 17,000 barrels per day, according to the cartel.

 

In January, according to secondary sources, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 26.68 million barrels per day, which is 121,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month. 

 

In December, crude oil commercial stocks with OECD countries rose by 4.3 million barrels per day to nearly 2.8 billion barrels, according to the report. Stocks were 172 million barrels below the 2015–19 average.

 

At 2139 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $72.03 per barrel, down 1.7%, and that of Brent oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was $72.02 per barrel, down 1.4% from the previous close.  End

 

US$1 = INR 86.89

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

 

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