Data Alert
High base pulls down Dec IIP growth to 3.2% from 5.0% in Nov
This story was originally published at 17:51 IST on 12 February 2025
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--India Dec industrial growth 3.2% vs 4.4% year ago
--Informist poll estimated Dec industrial growth at 3.9%
--India Nov industrial growth revised to 5.0% vs 5.2% provisional
--India Apr-Dec industrial growth 4.0% vs 6.3% year ago
--India Dec mining sector growth 2.6% vs 5.2% year ago
--India Dec manufacturing sector growth 3.0% vs 4.6% year ago
--India Dec electricity sector growth 6.2% vs 1.2% year ago
--India Dec primary goods output growth 3.8% vs 4.8% year ago
--India Dec capital goods output growth 10.3% vs 3.7% year ago
--India Dec intermediate goods output growth 5.9% vs 3.7% year ago
--India Dec infrastructure goods output growth 6.3% vs 5.5% year ago
--India Dec consumer durables output growth 8.3% vs 5.2% year ago
--India Dec consumer non-durables output growth -7.6% vs 3.0% year ago
NEW DELHI – India's industrial output grew at a slower clip in December, with the Index of Industrial Production rising by 3.2%, down from November's revised figure of 5.0%, data released by the statistics ministry Wednesday showed. The provisional estimate for November was 5.2%. Industrial output had grown 4.4% in the last month of 2023.
At 3.2%, the latest IIP growth print is below expectations. According to an Informist poll, IIP growth was seen cooling to 3.9%. For Apr-Dec, India's industrial output was up 4.0%, much lower than the 6.3% recorded in the first nine months of the financial year 2023-24 (Apr-Mar).
The weaker expansion in industrial production in December was down to an unfavourable base, with the base period seeing a sharp sequential increase of 7.9% in the general index of the IIP. The high base was particularly pronounced for manufacturing--which accounts for more than three-quarters of the IIP--and the sector posted year-on-year output growth of 3.0% in December, down from 5.5% in November and 4.6% a year ago.
Meanwhile, growth in mining output edged up to 2.6% from 1.9% in November. Electricity production also rose at a faster pace of 6.2%, as against 4.4% in the penultimate month of 2024.
Within the use-based classification, the performance was similarly mixed, with half of the six categories of goods seeing a drop in production growth in December from November. The risers included primary goods (3.8% growth in December versus 2.7% in November), capital goods (10.3% versus 8.8%), and intermediate goods (5.9% versus 4.8%).
A weaker growth out-turn was visible in the production of infrastructure (6.3% versus 8.1%) and consumer durable goods (8.3% versus 14.1%). The worst performer was consumer non-durables, whose production was a huge 7.6% lower on year in December compared to a minor 0.4% increase in November.
To be sure, there was 5.1% sequential increase in production of consumer non-durables in December. However, the category suffered the most from an unfavourable base effect, and as such, saw a drop in the year-on-year growth rate. According to Madan Sabnavis, Bank of Baroda's chief economist, the production of consumer non-durables in December was also affected by weaker demand on account of higher inflation.
The following tables detail year-on-year changes in industrial output in December:
| December 2024 | November 2024 | December 2023 | |
| General | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| Mining | 2.6% | 1.9% | 5.2% |
| Manufacturing | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| Electricity | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Primary goods | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% |
| Capital goods | 10.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% |
| Intermediate goods | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| Infrastructure/construction goods | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% |
| Consumer durables | 8.3% | 14.1% | 5.2% |
| Consumer non-durables | (-)7.6% | 0.4% | 3.0% |
| Mining | Electricity | Manufacturing | General | |||||
| FY25 | FY24 | FY25 | FY24 | FY25 | FY24 | FY25 | FY24 | |
| April | 6.8% | 5.1% | 10.2% | (-)1.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| May | 6.6% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 0.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% |
| June | 10.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| July | 3.8% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% |
| August | (-)4.3% | 12.3% | (-)3.7% | 15.3% | 1.2% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.9% |
| September | 0.2% | 11.5% | 0.5% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 6.4% |
| October | 0.9% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 20.4% | 4.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 11.9% |
| November | 1.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| December | 2.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% |
| January | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | ||||
| February | 8.1% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | ||||
| March | 1.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | ||||
| Mining | Manufacturing | Electricity | General | |
| FY24 | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% |
| FY23 | 5.8% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 5.2% |
| FY22 | 12.2% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 11.4% |
| FY21 | (-)7.8% | (-)9.6% | (-)0.5% | (-)8.4% |
| FY20 | 1.6% | (-)1.4% | 1.0% | (-)0.8% |
| FY19 | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| FY18 | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% |
| FY17 | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% |
| FY16 | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| FY15 | (-)1.4% | 3.8% | 14.8% | 4.0% |
| FY14 | (-)0.1% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% |
| FY13 | (-)5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% |
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
End
Reported by Siddharth Upasani
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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