El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral, La Nina unlikely - Australia Met dept
This story was originally published at 12:58 IST on 6 February 2025
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MUMBAI – The El Nino–Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific is neutral and there is no possibility of a La Nina event, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly forecast on Wednesday. All the international models surveyed by the bureau forecast neutral conditions, which means there is no possibility of either El Nino or La Nina, from March until at least June.
The El Nino–Southern Oscillation has remained neutral for the past six months, despite changes in sea surface temperature patterns consistent with a developing La Nina. Since late December, the tropical Pacific has been more La Nina-like, with signs of interaction between oceanic and atmospheric indices. However, these signs have not met the La Nina thresholds, the bureau said.
"Historically, it is very late in the typical El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle for a La Nina event to develop," the bureau said.
As of Jan. 26, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is at (-)0.86 degrees Celsius, dropping just below the La Nia threshold, the bureau said. For La Nina to emerge, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall.
The bureau said the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa.
The bureau further said that global sea surface temperatures remain substantially above average, and in Australia, they were the warmest on record in January since 1900. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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