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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025

 

NEW DELHI - The stage is set for a fierce showdown between the Aam Aadmi Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and the Congress for the upcoming Assembly elections in Delhi. All three parties have left no stone unturned to ensure their respective victories. Apart from aggressive campaigning through door-to-door marches, they organised massive public rallies spearheaded by prominent campaigners across the national capital over the past few weeks.

 

While the incumbent AAP government is primarily banking on its welfare schemes, such as free electricity, water, education, and healthcare, to win the elections, the BJP and the Congress have been criticising AAP for corruption in a bid to capitalise on the anti-incumbency sentiment among voters. Further, all three parties have even announced freebies.

The elections for the 70-member Delhi Legislative Assembly will be held on Wednesday. Votes will be counted on Feb. 8. AAP has governed the national capital for the past decade. It won a thumping majority in the 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections with 67 and 62 seats, respectively.
 
AAP'S POLL PLANK

Continuing with its welfare strategy, the AAP has announced a slew of freebies ahead of the Delhi elections targetting women, students, Dalits, tenants and priests. The party also attempted to woo Jat voters in Delhi by supporting their demand for reservation. In addition to the ongoing free water and electricity scheme, the AAP promised INR 2,500 per month to women, INR 18,000 per month to Hindu and Sikh priests in Delhi, and free water and electricity for tenants.

To exploit the dearth of a popular face in the Delhi BJP unit, the AAP followed its 2015 poll strategy, asking the former to name its chief minister candidate. In 2015, the AAP came up with this campaign strategy to end the BJP's narrative of (Prime Minister) Narendra Modi versus Arvind Kejriwal by asking the saffron party to name its chief ministerial face if voted to power. Following this, the BJP brought in Kiren Bedi, a retired Indian Police Services officer, to counter Kejriwal, but it suffered a major debacle as its tally was ultimately reduced to three.
 
AAP is also trying to get public sympathy over the arrest of its top leadership - Kejriwal, former deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia, former minister Satyendra Jain and Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Singh - over alleged money laundering cases. The party has termed the cases as a sham. The AAP has also made law and order a major poll issue as the Delhi Police comes under the Centre led by the BJP.
 
Will all these strategies yield a favourable outcome for AAP in the upcoming polls? Political analyst Sudhir Singh said the party is likely to return to power, but with a thin margin compared to the previous polls. "The cluster voters - slum dwellers, lower middle class are still with the AAP. They trust the party for welfare schemes it has delivered in the past decade," he said. "However, the Muslim voters may shift back to the Congress party. Muslim voters have been the deciding factor in over five assembly seats. We will have to see the size of Muslim voters shifting to the Congress party. This will be crucial in the elections." 
 
"The freebies will be a major factor in the elections and, going by the past trends, the voters trust the ruling party more if it has already been providing freebies," Singh said, citing the results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where the voters reposed their faith in incumbent governments for delivering freebies.  
 
BJP'S SHEESH MAHAL JIBE

Apart from propagating the brand Modi, the BJP's campaign has been focussed on the corruption allegations against Kejriwal's party leaders and on the controversy surrounding his house. The BJP referred to his house as "Sheesh Mahal" – a paradise. The saffron party alleged that Kejriwal constructed a "seven-star resort for himself" at the cost of taxpayers' money.

 

The party has also been pitching the achievements of the Modi government at the Centre. It also announced several freebies, such as financial aid of INR 15,000 for youth, INR 2,500 monthly payments for women, INR 21,000 for every pregnant woman, and INR 2,500 monthly pension for senior citizens.
 
Delhi has turned into a prestige battle for the BJP and Modi, Gyan Prakash, a political analyst, said. It has been out of power in the capital for 27 years now, Prakash said. In the last two Assembly elections, the BJP didn't reach double-digit figures in terms of seats won. It won three seats in 2015 and eight seats in 2020. However, it has swept all Lok Sabha polls in Delhi from 2014 to 2024. This time, the party has deployed a battery of star campaigners, including Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and several other chief ministers and Union ministers. The party has been conducting door-to-door campaigns and communicating its promises to voters. The BJP cadre is confident about its victory this time, especially after defeating the AAP and the Congress alliance in the Lok Sabha elections last year. 
 
Singh said that the entire game is of nearly 17% votes, which keeps switching between the BJP and the AAP during Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. "In Lok Sabha elections, this 17% share, mostly middle class, shift to the BJP, while in assembly elections they vote for the AAP," Singh said.
 
CONGRESS EYES LOST GROUND

Many believe that most of the development that Delhi witnessed was during the tenure of the Congress government under former chief minister Sheila Dikshit. Yet, the Grand Old Party failed miserably to regain its foothold in Delhi since Dikshit was ousted from power in 2013. The party couldn't win a single seat in the last two elections. The vote share of the Congress has seen a massive decline from 40% in 2008 to 4% in 2020. The traditional voters of the party – Muslims and slum dwellers – shifted to the AAP after the 2013 Assembly polls. However, Singh said there is a possibility of Muslim voters shifting back to Congress. "Muslim voters are deciding factors in around five constituencies. If the Muslims shift back to Congress, then the party may get some seats in Delhi," the analyst said.

 

The Congress party has also been targeting the Purvanchali voters, which make up roughly 30% of Delhi's total population. It has also announced several freebies, such as a monthly allowance of INR 2,500 for women, INR 8,500 for unemployed youth, and health coverage of up to INR 2.5 million.  End

 

Reported by Kuldeep Singh

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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