AgriMandi pegs India 2024-25 sugar output at 27.4 mln tn, down 14.4% YoY
This story was originally published at 17:24 IST on 27 January 2025
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NEW DELHI – India's sugar production in 2024-25 (Oct-Sep) is likely to fall 14.4% on year to 27.4 million tonnes against 32.0 million tonnes last year, according to AgriMandi.live estimates. Sugar output is projected to fall due to a decline in sugarcane yields in major producers--Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. The Kolhapur-based research firm's estimates are way lower than trade organisations' forecasts.
In November, The Indian Sugar Mills & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association had estimated sugar output in 2024-25 at 29.3 million tonnes. The private mill body is likely to detail its second advance estimates after its executive committee meeting on Jan. 31, an ISMA official said.
Latest data from ISMA showed mills across the country produced 9.54 million tonnes sugar, down 15.6% on year, as of Dec. 31. Crushing of sugar is going on in full swing and will end by June.
"The projected balance-sheet for the sugar market in 2024-25 indicates several important trends: a decrease in sugar production, a slight increase in consumption, and a significant rise in the conversion of sugar to ethanol," Uppal Shah, Founder and CEO of AgriMandi.live said in a note.
With 7.9 million tonnes of sugar carried from last year, AgriMandi sees total sugar supply in 2024-25 at 35.3 million tonnes, down 5.1% from 37.2 million tonnes last year. Total sugar consumption in 2024-25 is estimated 3.8% higher on year at 30.4 million tonnes, with domestic consumption at 29.2 million tonnes and 1 million tonnes sugar shipped out. Last year, India only exported around 200,000 tonnes of sugar through diplomatic deals, as exports were banned.
The government had banned sugar exports in June 2022 due to concern about lower production. India is the second-largest sugar producer, after Brazil. In 2021-22, India exported a record 11 million tonnes of sugar, worth INR 400 billion.
The sugar season is likely to close with 4.9 million tonnes as of Sept. 30, against 7.9 million tonnes last year, according to AgriMandi. The 2023-24 season closed with more sugar stocks amid an export ban and lower sugar diversion for ethanol production. In 2024-25, sugar diversion for ethanol is seen at 4.0 million tonnes against 2.2 million tonnes last year.
Ex-mill sugar prices have firmed up amid concern over lower sugar production and export announcements. On Monday, the all-India average wholesale sugar prices were INR 4,153.06 per 100 kg, up 1% on year.
The following table details the sugar balance sheet, in million tonnes, for 2024-25, as per AgriMandi.live:
2024-25 | 2023-24 | |
SUPPLY | ||
Opening stock | 7.9 | 5.2 |
Output | 27.4 | 32.0 |
Total supply | 35.3 | 37.2 |
DEMAND | ||
Domestic consumption | 29.2 | 29.1 |
Exports | 1.0 | 0.2 |
Closing stock | 4.9 | 7.9 |
End
Reported by Afra Abubacker
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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