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Informist, Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – As the India Meteorological Department celebrates its 150th anniversary, stakeholders ask for accurate long-range forecasts and customised weather data for various sectors like hydrology, agriculture, health, aviation, and energy. Experts stressed the importance of monsoon forecasts as the water released from reservoirs ensures food security and energy security.

 

"If we can get better resolution of (monsoon) data in terms of spatial resolution and terms of long-range forecasts...that will lead to the optimal utilisation of water in our multi-purpose projects," Manoj Tripathi, chairman, Bhakra Beas Management Board, said on Wednesday at IMD's 150th Foundation Day celebration. The most important weather event in a year is monsoon, providing around 70% of India's annual rainfall and replenishing reservoirs and water bodies. 

 

To make India weather-ready and climate-smart, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated INR-20-billion Mission Mausam on Tuesday. The mission will also help improve localised weather forecasts, weather observation infrastructure for hilly terrain, and integrate weather data into disaster management plans, he said at the inaugural address of the IMD's event. 

 

On tailored weather data, L.S Rathore, former director, IMD said, "We are pumping so much information, and the usability of it is still a question." The weather bureau gives out weekly forecasts of rainfall and temperature, monsoon forecasts, and nowcasts for severe weather events. It also issues advisories to farmers and fishermen. 

 

To optimally use data, experts suggest the integration of weather data with water, agriculture, health, and energy. To check climate change's impact on public health, Soumya Swaminathan, former chief scientist of the World Health Organization stressed the need to integrate climate and health data. "Silo approach stands in the way of wholesome analysis. Weather and health data are there, but it is in different places," she said. "If air quality is improved, there is an immediate reduction in heart attack cases. That was the case in London," she added. 

 

In a similar note, agriculture experts asked for data integration of weather and water with crop data to have accurate yield forecasts. According to Agricultural Scientist Vinay Kumar Sehgal, satellite data can be incorporated into weather models to help IMD identify crops, or even generate yield forecasts. 

 

GROWING PROMINENCE

In the past, public trust in IMD forecasts was very low and people dismissed its predictions. But now it has improved. "In the last 10 years, there has been a 50% rise in the accuracy of weather forecasts," said Jitendra Singh, state minister, Ministry of Earth Sciences. The country is better prepared to tackle natural disasters, he added. 

 

Recalling the lives lost during Gujarat's Kutch cyclone in 1998 and the super cyclone over Odisha in 1999, Prime Minister Modi pointed out that the weather department's early warnings were the backbone of disaster management and safeguarding lives.

 

"Tropical cyclones used to claim tens of thousands of lives. Thankfully, this is a nightmare of the past," Celeste Saulo, secretary general, World Meteorological Organization, said at the event. She cited how India's weather department gave timely forecasts and warnings during the 2023 cyclone Mocha and limited widespread damage. "India helped WMO lead the way during tropical Cyclone Mocha," she said. 

 

India Meteorological Department's flash flood guidelines systems are not only safeguarding Indians but also the larger South Asia, she added. Saulo pointed out how the Met Department translates complex science into actionable guidelines and leverages science to serve society. 

 

"Early Warnings for All" is an initiative announced by the UN in 2022 to ensure that everyone is protected from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027. As part of the initiative, India is helping Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Mauritius develop early warning systems to reduce the loss of life and property due to extreme weather events. 

 

Having survived many tropical cyclones, India has built resilience in tackling cyclones. IMD's Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra is fondly called "Cyclone Man" for his specialisation in cyclone warning. However, experts point out India is not yet prepared to mitigate the hazards of air pollution and rising temperatures. "We have reduced the mortality rate in cyclones, but not in heat stress and floods," Swaminathan said. India will see more deaths due to heat strokes and floods in the coming years amid rising global temperatures, she added. 

 

WAY FORWARD

To improve local forecasts, IMD aims to warn about heavy rainfall three-four weeks in advance with high accuracy at village level by 2047. The warnings will be auto-generated with the least human intervention with maximum outreach, IMD's Vision 2047 document read. 

 

The document details short- and long-term vision for improving early warning system, sector services, climate modelling, and capacity building among others. "The Indian Ocean Marine Weather Service will be a benchmark for other regional marine weather services globally," it read. 

 

IMD plans to improve the accuracy of nowcasts to achieve zero loss of life of humans, livestock, and property due to weather-related disasters by 2047. The India Meteorological Department will endeavour to be a global leader in thunderstorm, lightning and cloud physics research, climate change adaptation, and mitigation strategies, IMD said. 

 

IMD will work to meet the demands of growing aviation sector by equipping airports across the country with advanced instruments--wind profilers, microwave radiometers, ceilometers, and wind shear alert systems. Additionally, by integrating meteorological information into air traffic management, IMD will facilitate smooth aircraft and helicopter operations by 2047. 

 

World Bank Practice Manager, Infrastructure Resilience Policy and Finance, Abhas Jha said that every $1 spent on early warning saves $7 in rehabilitation. "We tell finance ministries around the world that early warning is the best investment," Jha said.  End

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

 

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