APEC Climate Center says conditions in Feb-Jul neutral, La Nina unlikely
This story was originally published at 13:47 IST on 16 January 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Jan. 16, 2025
MUMBAI – Though the El Nino–Southern Oscillation is currently in the 'La Nina Watch' range, the possibility of La Nina emerging between February and July is unlikely, the APEC Climate Center said in a report Wednesday. El Nino–Southern Oscillation 'neutral' conditions are the most probable during the forecast period, with the chances increasing to 72.5% from 53.6%, according to the report.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.8 degrees Celsius in February, with a gradual increase to 0.1 degrees Celsius by July, the climate centre said. For La Nina to emerge, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius, it said.
Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to be negative for the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the forecast period, with its intensity diminishing, before approaching near-normal levels during May to July, the climate centre said. A negative anomaly refers to cooler than average temperatures on the ocean's surface.
The climate centre predicts a strongly enhanced probability of above normal temperatures for most of the globe, except for the central and eastern tropical Pacific, during the forecast period. Moreover, a strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is also likely for the central and western equatorial Pacific from February to April, whereas an enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific for May to June.
In its outlook for January-June, the climate centre had predicted a 60% chance of La Nina for the forecast period.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in its fortnightly report released on Jan. 8, had predicted a slim possibility of La Nina conditions during the first two months of the year. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Nishant Maher
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
