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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025

 

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--OPEC retains growth view for oil demand in 2025 at 1.4 mln bpd 
--OPEC sees growth view for oil demand in 2026 at 1.4 mln bpd 
--OPEC retains non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2025 at 1.1 mln bpd 
--OPEC sees non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2026 at 1.1 mln bpd 
--OPEC oil production in Dec at 26.74 mln bpd, up 26,000 bpd on month 
--OPEC, allies' oil output in Dec 40.65 mln bpd, down 14,000 bpd on month 
--OPEC: Saudi Arabia Dec oil output 8.9 mln bpd, down 23,000 bpd on month 
--OPEC: Libya Dec oil output at 1.3 mln bpd, up 53,000 bpd on month 
--OPEC: OECD Nov crude oil stocks down 8.4 mln bbl on month at 2.78 bln bbl 
--OPEC: OECD Nov crude oil stocks 171 mln bbl lower than 2015-2019 avg 

 

MUMBAI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has kept the forecasts for growth in global crude oil demand for 2025 unchanged at 1.4 million barrels per day. The global oil demand in 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day from the previous year, OPEC said in its December Oil Market Report.

 

The cartel has marginally increased its forecast for crude oil demand for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development by 100,000 barrels per day and for non-OECD, it is forecast to grow by about 1.3 million barrels per day. This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026, it said.

 

Crude oil production in December from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation--OPEC and allies--fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day, according to secondary sources. 

 

Supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is estimated to have expanded by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024 to average 53.2 million barrels per day. In 2025, non-OPEC liquids supply growth is expected at 1.1 million barrels per day to average 54.3 million barrels per day. Growth is expected to be driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway, while the main decline is expected in Angola, the cartel said.

 

Similarly, OECD supply is expected to increase next year by 600,000 barrels per day, and non-OECD output is set to expand by 500,000 barrels per day. The main drivers for the liquid supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil and Canada. At the same time, Angolan production is forecast to see the largest drop. Non-Declaration of Cooperation supply in 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day to average 55.4 million barrels per day.

 

India's oil demand in 2025 is seen at 5.79 million barrels per day, up from 5.55 million barrels per day in 2024, OPEC said. In 2026, the country is expected to consume 6.06 million barrels per day of oil, up 4.7% on year from 2025.

 

Saudi Arabia's December oil output is seen at 8.9 million barrels per day, down 23,000 barrels per day from the previous month and Libya's December oil output at 1.3 million barrels per day, up 53,000 barrels per day, according to the cartel.

 

In December, according to secondary sources, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 26.74 million barrels per day, which is 26,000 barrels per day higher from the previous month. 

 

In November, crude oil commercial stocks with OECD countries fell by 8.4 million barrels per day to nearly 2.8 billion barrels, according to the report. Stocks were 171 million barrels below the 2015–19 average.

 

At 1819 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $77.79 per barrel, up 0.4%, and that of Brent oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was $80.07 per barrel, up 0.3% from the previous close.  End

 

US$1 = INR 86.36

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy and Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

 

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