More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025

MUMBAI – The International Energy Agency expects global crude oil demand to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day to 104 million barrels per day in 2025, slightly lower than the 1.1 million barrels per day projected last month. The agency also revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 to 940,000 barrels per day from 840,000 barrels per day projected in December, due to an improving economic outlook.

Global oil demand rose 1.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, 260,000 barrels higher than the previous forecast. This was mainly due to lower fuel prices, colder weather across the Northern Hemisphere, and abundant petrochemical feedstocks, the agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report for January.

"Average heating degree days were significantly higher than a year ago and slightly above the five-year average, boosting oil demand," it said. The agency raised the oil demand in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries by 250,000 barrels per day for the December quarter. However, oil demand trends in non-OECD countries were mixed. For instance, oil demand in China witnessed modest growth in November, while the latest data for Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and India were all below expectations, the agency said.

The agency expects global oil supply to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day this year to 104.7 million barrels, compared to the growth of 660,000 barrels per day seen in 2024. Production outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies is set to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, to 53.1 million barrels per day and 54.6 million barrels per day, respectively. This growth will be led by the US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina.

Global oil inventories increased by 12.2 million barrels in November, as higher crude oil stocks on land and water more than offset drawdowns in oil products, the agency said. Global oil inventories extended gains in December, led mainly by a surge in oil products on water, according to the agency.

Refinery crude runs jumped 1.2 million barrels per day on month to a five-year high of 84.3 million barrels per day in December, as scheduled autumn maintenance was completed and margins improved. Refinery runs are forecast to rise by 660,000 barrels per day in 2025, following growth of 510,000 barrels per day in 2024, led by stronger non-OECD throughputs, while closures in the Americas and Europe weigh on OECD rates.

Russian oil exports fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 7.33 million barrels per day in December as a 250,000 barrel-per-day drop in crude oil shipments was mostly offset by higher product loadings. Export revenues rose by $410 million to $15.1 billion as product prices improved, it said.

Brent Crude prices surged above $80 per barrel in early January because US sanctions on Iran and Russia intensified and freezing temperatures swept across large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. There is heightened speculation that the incoming US administration will take a tougher stance on Iran's oil exports, compounding the impact of US Treasury sanctions on Tehran, the agency said.

"While it is too early to fully quantify the potential impact from these new measures, some operators have reportedly already started to pull back from Iranian and Russian oil," it said. At 1646 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $77.64 per barrel, while that of Brent Crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was $80.05 per barrel.  End

US$1 = INR 86.36

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Nishant Maher

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.