FMCG Stocks Outlook
Seen in a range next week, all eyes on Oct-Dec earnings
This story was originally published at 20:42 IST on 10 January 2025
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MUMBAI – Shares of fast-moving consumer goods companies are expected to trade in a range next week ahead of their December quarter earnings, with investors keeping an eye out on comments by the management post-earnings. Analysts believe demand from urban areas for consumer goods was subdued in Oct-Dec, as was the case in the previous three quarters. Moreover, higher raw material prices are expected to have dented the gross margin of FMCG companies.
"The valuations are attractive, so we might see some buying next week, but it will also depend on the management commentary," a research associate at a domestic brokerage said. Price hikes taken by most FMCG companies likely impacted their volumes despite the festival season, leading to weaker December quarter earnings, she added.
Nomura Global Markets Research expects volume growth of FMCG companies to be in a range and below the long-term average in 2025 due to weak urban demand and the absence of any trigger. The brokerage firm expects volume of staples to grow 5.5% on year, sales to grow 10%, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation to grow 12% in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar).
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. expects the cumulative EBITDA margin of FMCG companies to decline 140 basis points on year, with absolute EBITDA growing slower than revenue growth.
The September quarter earnings of FMCG companies made it clear that they were seeing a divide between urban and rural areas when it comes to demand trends. Analysts feel commentaries by management executives will be a key monitorable when they disclose their December quarter earnings.
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Following are the resistance and support levels for the stocks for next week as per calculations by Informist based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-week change in % | Resistance | Support |
| Adani Wilmar | 291.10 | (-)11.40 | 305.10 | 284.10 |
| Britannia Industries | 4945.00 | 2.30 | 5005.10 | 4851.60 |
| Colgate Palmolive India | 2827.10 | 0.20 | 2908.40 | 2770.30 |
| Dabur India | 517.30 | (-)1.50 | 527.00 | 509.20 |
| Emami | 591.25 | (-)3.80 | 600.70 | 576.70 |
| Godrej Consumer Products | 1174.20 | 5.20 | 1199.00 | 1155.20 |
| Hindustan Unilever | 2445.55 | 1.60 | 2480.70 | 2396.30 |
| ITC | 444.95 | (-)2.30 | 456.00 | 437.00 |
| Jyothy Labs | 399.55 | (-)0.90 | 413.00 | 391.10 |
| Marico | 675.05 | 2.10 | 688.00 | 658.20 |
| Nestle India | 2250.35 | 0.80 | 2288.70 | 2228.90 |
| Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care | 14770.80 | 0.60 | 15002.30 | 14462.20 |
| Tata Consumer Products | 974.45 | 3.70 | 990.20 | 951.20 |
| Varun Beverages | 595.75 | (-)8.70 | 608.70 | 584.00 |
| Nifty FMCG | 57140.85 | (-)1.20 | 57899.30 | 56557.40 |
| Nifty 50 | 23413.80 | (-)2.50 | 23703.80 | 23199.30 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 77327.98 | (-)2.40 | 78269.20 | 76628.90 |
End
Reported by Simran Rede
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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