Informist Poll
Dec WPI inflation seen at 6-month high of 2.4% on low base
This story was originally published at 15:32 IST on 10 January 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Jan. 10, 2025
By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - India's wholesale inflation likely rose to a six-month high of 2.4% in December from 1.89% in November, driven by an unfavourable base effect even as food prices fell in the last month of 2024, according to an Informist poll of 12 economists.
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry will release wholesale inflation data for December at 1200 IST on Tuesday. In December 2023, when wholesale inflation had come in at 0.86%, the 'all commodities' index of the WPI had declined 0.8% sequentially, resulting in an unfavourable base for the inflation print for December 2024.
While the base effect will push up year-on-year inflation in December, the price momentum likely weakened as ‘all commodities' index is seen to have fallen sequentially last month thanks to a fall in prices of vegetables and pulses. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomatoes fell 12.5% on month in December, while those of onion and potato declined 12.1% and 2.8%, respectively.
Wholesale prices of pulses also declined sequentially in December, although those of edible oils and wheat continued to rise.
The low base is even more pronounced for food items, with the index for food articles having fallen by 2.9% month-on-month in December 2023. As a result, despite a fall in prices of key food items last month, food articles inflation is seen rising to 9.1% from 8.63% in November, according to Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.
Core WPI inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--is expected to have remained muted in December and close to November's print of 0.5%. According to S&P Global, input price inflation cooled in December from November for Indian manufacturers. Inflation for manufactured products, which account for nearly two-thirds of the WPI, rose to a 22-month high of 2.00% in November.
Even if WPI inflation rises as expected in December, it will remain well below its retail counterpart. December CPI inflation data, which will be released at 1600 IST on Monday, is seen edging down to a four-month low of 5.3%, according to a separate Informist poll.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in December:
|
ORGANISATION |
WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
|
Bank of Baroda |
1.9% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
2.0% |
|
ICICI Bank |
2.18% |
|
Acuite Ratings and Research |
2.2% |
|
YES Bank |
2.26% |
|
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities |
2.3% |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services |
2.4% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
2.5% |
|
Union Bank of India |
2.5% |
|
ICRA |
2.6% |
|
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership |
2.7% |
|
Nomura |
2.8% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
