Climate Change
Slim possibility of La Nina conditions emerging in Jan-Feb - Australian Met
This story was originally published at 15:16 IST on 9 January 2025
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MUMBAI – The El Nino–Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific is neutral and there is some possibility of a La Nina event in the first two months of the year, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly forecast on Wednesday.
While many indicators have recently met the threshold for La Nina, they have not been sustained for levels or duration sufficient to warrant La Nina status in the past six months, the bureau said. However, in recent observations, both ocean and atmosphere indicators are now showing signs of stronger coupling, which is more consistent with a La Nina event, the bureau said.
As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is at (-)0.83 degrees Celsius. For La Nina to emerge, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. The most recent Southern Oscillation Index values are close to or above the La Nina thresholds.
"A continuation of Southern Oscillation Index values above the threshold will likely see a La Nina event established for at least part of the summer," the bureau said. The Australian summer takes place from December to February.
It also added that most international climate models have ENSO returning to neutral by March.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall.
As of Sunday, the bureau said the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral and will remain so throughout the forecast period to May 2025. "This is consistent with four other international climate models surveyed and typical Indian Ocean Dipole behaviour at this time of year," the bureau said.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa.
The bureau further said that global sea surface temperatures remain substantially above average, and in Australia, they were the warmest on record in December. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Saji George Titus
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