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Informist, Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

 

MUMBAI – Growth in wholesale volumes of passenger vehicles in December is expected to be only a tad higher than the 4.4% on-year rise registered a month ago, as record high discounts failed to substantially offset subdued demand trends, analysts said. Growth in two-wheeler volumes slowed down in December, and commercial vehicles continued to see weakness. Tractors, on the other hand, are expected to be stand-out performers during the month.

 

Demand for passenger cars remained weak in December, after a modest festive season. Analysts anticipate growth in passenger vehicle wholesales for Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., flattish wholesales for Hyundai Motor India Ltd., and contraction for Tata Motors Ltd.

 

Maruti Suzuki's passenger vehicle wholesale volumes in India are expected to have increased 24% on year to 130,000 units in December, while exports are seen growing 12% to 30,000 units, Nomura Research said in a report. M&M's utility vehicle sales are expected to have risen to 41,000 units, up 17% on year on the back of ramp-up in production of the Thar ROXX and XUV 3X0, the research firm said.

 

Hyundai Motor, freshly listed on Indian bourses, is likely to have sold 42,000 units locally in December, a tad lower than the 42,800 units sold in the same month a year ago, as per Nomura. Analysts at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities expect Hyundai Motor's wholesales to dip 6% on a monthly basis.

 

Passenger vehicle wholesales by Tata Motor are expected to have fallen 13% on year to 38,000 units, Nomura said. Nuvama Institutional Equities has pencilled in a decline of 6% on year for the segment in December. In November, Tata Motors' passenger car wholesales rose 2%.

 

TWO-WHEELERS

Nomura expects two-wheeler wholesales in December to have grown 2% on year to 1.2 million units. Industry surveys by the firm show that demand trends for two-wheelers have slowed down recently. Channel checks by Nirmal Bang suggest that the slowdown is more in urban areas, as rural demand is strong. 

 

Bajaj Auto Ltd.'s overall sales, including of two- and three-wheelers, are expected to have increased 7% on year to 351,000 units in December. Its two-wheeler sales in India are seen decreasing 5%, while exports are likely to have risen 20%, Nomura said in its report. "We expect Bajaj Auto to benefit from (the) recovery of exports and further success in EV (electric vehicle) 2Ws (two-wheelers) led by affordable model launches and network expansion," Nomura said.

 

TVS Motor Co. Ltd. is expected to report a 9% on-year increase in overall domestic sales in December at 237,000 units, Nomura said. The Chennai-based motorcycle company is likely to have exported 98,000 units in December, up 15% on year, Nomura said. 

The research firm expects Hero MotoCorp Ltd. to report wholesales of 350,000 units in December, down 11% on year. Eicher Motors Ltd.'s two-wheeler arm Royal Enfield is expected to report sales of 76,000 units in December, up 20% on year, Nomura said. Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Pvt. Ltd may see volume contraction of 6% on year in December at 370,000 units, Nuvama said.

 

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

Delayed capital expenditure by the central government continued to be a spot of bother for commercial vehicle sales in December and is expected to impact demand in the near term, analysts said. In addition, freight availability in the early half of December fell significantly, said Nirmal Bang, making it one of the weakest months for fleet operators. Nomura expects medium and heavy commercial vehicle wholesales in December to have dipped 2% to 34,000 units.

 

Wholesale volume growth for Ashok Leyland Ltd. is expected to be 2% on year in December, at 11,000 units. Wholesales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles made by Tata Motors are expected to have declined to 16,400 units, down 3%, while light commercial vehicle wholesales may have fallen 11% on year to 14,000 units, Nomura said. The research firm expects Eicher Motors' commercial vehicle sales to have declined 3% on year in December to 7,800 units.

 

TRACTORS

Nomura expects tractor wholesales to increase 11% on year on the back of demand supported by good rainfall, good reservoir levels, crop prices, and improved rural sentiment. Analysts at Nirmal Bang have stated that pricing discipline in this segment is much higher compared to passenger vehicles and two-wheelers.

 

The research firm expects M&M's tractor volumes to increase 12% on year in December to 21,500 units. Nuvama expects total volumes of Escorts Kubota Ltd. to increase 2% on-year in December to 6,250 units.  End

 

Reported by Anand JC

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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