Informist Poll
WPI inflation seen moderating to 2.1% in Nov from 2.4% Oct
This story was originally published at 16:16 IST on 13 December 2024
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India's wholesale inflation likely moderated to 2.1% in November from a four-month high of 2.36% in October because of a fall in vegetable prices, according to an Informist poll of 11 economists. WPI inflation rate was 0.39% in November 2023.
Economists' estimates for last month's wholesale inflation ranged from 1.9% to 2.8%. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry will release the November wholesale inflation data at 1200 IST on Monday.
As was the case with its retail counterpart, a sharp sequential decline in vegetable prices, particularly of tomatoes, in November is expected to pull down the WPI inflation print.
According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomatoes fell 17.6% in November from the previous month. However, those of potato and onion rose 1.5% and 4.3%, respectively, over the same period. Apart from vegetables, other food items--whose data is collated by the consumer affairs department--which showed a month-on-month increase in prices in November, were edible oils and cereals.
Core WPI inflation--that excludes food and fuel items--is expected to have remained muted at around 0% in November, Teresa John, deputy head of research and economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, said in a note. Core WPI inflation rose to 0.3% in October from 0.1% in September.
"Core WPI inflation is expected to remain benign at around 0?spite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) surveys indicating a rise in price pressures in November," John said.
India's manufacturing PMI fell to 56.5 in November from 57.5 a month ago. PMI data showed that prices charged by Indian manufacturers to customers rose the most in November since October 2013, while input cost inflation rose to its highest level since July.
Manufactured products WPI inflation was at a three-month high of 1.50% in October from 1.00% in September. On a sequential basis, the WPI manufactured products index rose 0.5% on month in October.
Despite the fall in retail inflation to a three-month low of 5.48% in November, WPI inflation remains well below it.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in November:
|
ORGANISATION |
WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
|
Bank of Baroda |
1.9% |
|
YES Bank |
1.94% |
|
Sunidhi Securities |
1.96% |
|
ICRA |
2.0% |
|
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership |
2.1% |
|
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities |
2.1% |
|
STCI Primary Dealer |
2.2% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
2.3% |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services |
2.5% |
|
Union Bank of India |
2.67% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
2.75% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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