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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

 

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--OPEC: OECD Oct crude oil stocks down 22.3 mln bbl on month at 2.8 bln bbl 
--OPEC: OECD Oct crude oil stocks 169 mln bbl lower than 2015-2019 avg 
--OPEC cuts growth view for oil demand in 2024 by 210,000 bpd to 1.6 mln bpd 
--OPEC cuts growth view for oil demand in 2025 by 90,000 bpd to 1.4 mln bpd 
--OPEC retains non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2024 at 1.3 mln bpd
--OPEC retains non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2025 at 1.1 mln bpd 
--OPEC oil production in Nov at 26.65 mln bpd, up 104,000 bpd on month 
--OPEC, allies' oil output in Nov 40.67 mln bpd, up 323,000 bpd on month 
--OPEC: Saudi Arabia Nov oil output 8.9 mln bpd, down 10,000 bpd on month 
--OPEC: Libya Nov oil output at 1.2 mln bpd, up 141,000 bpd on month 

 

MUMBAI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has revised downward its forecasts for growth in global crude oil demand for 2024 and 2025. The growth forecast for 2024 has been trimmed by nearly 210,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day, OPEC said in its November Oil Market Report. The cartel sees demand for crude oil in 2025 rising by 1.4 million barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month's estimate.

OPEC now sees total demand for oil in 2024 at 103.8 million barrels per day and at 105.3 million barrels per day in 2025. 

 

The cartel has marginally increased its forecast for crude oil demand for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2024 by 11,000 barrels per day to 45.76 million barrels per day from 45.65 million barrels per day. The cartel forecast demand for OECD countries in 2025 at 45.87 million barrels per day, a growth of just 0.1% from 2024. Demand for oil in non-OECD countries is expected to grow by around 150,000 barrels per day this year, driven by China and supported by other Asia, India, West Asia and Latin America, it said.

 

The cartel has also raised its forecast for crude oil production from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC and allies) in November by 323,000 bpd to 40.67 million barrels per day. Production in Russia fell by 7,000 barrels per day, while output in Kazakhstan surged 202,000 barrels per day, according to the report.

 

India's oil demand in 2024 is seen at 5.55 million barrels per day, 4% higher than in 2023, OPEC said. In 2025, the country is expected to consume nearly 5.79 million barrels per day of oil, a growth of 4.3% on year.

 

In November, according to secondary sources, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 26.66 million barrels per day, which is 104,000 barrels per day higher on month. Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, while production in Iraq, Congo, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela decreased.

 

OECD liquids production (excluding DoC participating country Mexico) is anticipated to expand by about 800,000 barrels per day to average 31.6 million barrels per day. Growth is set to be led by OECD Americas, with an expected increase of 900,000 barrels per day to average 27.5 million barrels per day. This was revised up by about 70,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month's assessment.

 

The cartel has forecast growth in oil supply from countries outside of OPEC and allies at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024, slightly up from previous estimate. "The main growth drivers are expected to be the US and Canada," it said. In 2025, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day, which also remains unchanged from the previous projection. "The growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway."

 

In October, crude oil commercial stocks with OECD countries fell by 22.3 million barrels per day to nearly 2.8 billion barrels, according to the report. Stocks in October were 169 million barrels lower than the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average.

 

At 2012 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $69.43 per barrel, and that of Brent oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was $72.81 per barrel, both down 0.9% from the previous close.  End

 

US$1 = INR 84.83

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

 

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