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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The El Nino–Southern Oscillation will remain in the neutral range till April, the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, said in its fortnightly forecast on Tuesday. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is not meeting the typical La Nina threshold, it said.

 

It also added that four of the six other international climate models surveyed showed the same. Currently, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is in the neutral range of (-)0.8 degree Celsius and 0.8 degree Celsius. For La Nina to emerge, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific should fall below the threshold of (-) 0.8 degree Celsius. 

 

"While not meeting typical La Nina thresholds, some oceanic indices as well as cloud and wind patterns in the Pacific have at times shown weak La Nina characteristics in recent months," the bureau said. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall.

 

The bureau also said the Indian Ocean Dipole, which had been tending negative from mid-October, had returned to neutral values at the start of December. In its previous forecast, the bureau had said the Indian Ocean Dipole index had been below the threshold of (-)0.40 degree Celsius since mid-October and for the week ended Nov. 24, the index was at (-)0.54 degree Celsius.   

 

"The bureau's model forecasts that the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) will remain neutral throughout the forecast period to April 2025. This is consistent with 5 of the 6 other international climate models surveyed."

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole typically sees above-average winter-spring rainfall in Australia, while a positive phase brings drier-than-average seasons. Meanwhile, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India and vice versa. 

 

The bureau further said global sea surface temperatures remain just below the record warm levels of 2023. "In the Australian region, November 2024 SSTs (sea surface temperatures) were the warmest on record for the month." 

 

In its long-range forecast released on Dec. 5, the bureau said the sustained nature of this significant global ocean heat suggests that climate indicators such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole may not behave or evolve as they have in the past.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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