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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The Indian Ocean Dipole index is likely to remain below the threshold and may turn negative this month, the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, said in its fortnightly forecast Tuesday. The index has been below the threshold of (-)0.40 degree Celsius since mid-October, and for the week ended Sunday, the index was at (-)0.54 degree Celsius.

 

For the event to be classified as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, the index needs to be at values below the threshold of (-)0.40 degree Celsius for at least eight weeks. Only one of the six climate models surveyed indicates that the Indian Ocean Dipole index will return to neutral levels in December, the bureau said.

 

Sea surface temperatures for the week ended Sunday were much warmer over the central and eastern Indian Ocean, while the temperatures were less warm in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, the bureau said. This means the western Indian Ocean is cooler than the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating a negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase.   

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole typically sees above-average winter-spring rainfall in Australia, while a positive phase brings drier-than-average seasons. Meanwhile, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall and vice versa. 

 

The bureau said that the sea surface temperatures are likely to remain within the neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation threshold of (-)0.8 degree Celsius and 0.8 degree Celsius till February. Of the six climate models, two models suggest that the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to fall below the La Nina threshold of (?)0.8 degree Celsius throughout December and February.

 

This is sufficient time to be classified as a La Nina event, though it would be considered a very short-lived event compared to the historical record, the bureau said. All models forecast neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation values by March, it said.

 

The India Meteorological Department earlier this month said there is a 71% chance of La Nina conditions emerging in Oct-Nov. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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