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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024

 

MUMBAI – The International Sugar Organization Wednesday projected the global sugar deficit at 2.51 million tonnes during the current season, which started in October. The global body said there was a surplus of 1.31 million tonnes during 2023-24, while its earlier reports estimated a deficit of 200,000 tonnes. "This latest shift to a surplus was driven by lower consumption estimates," it said. 

 

The global body has scaled up the world's sugar consumption estimate in 2024-25 to 181.58 million tonnes from 180.05 million tonnes in 2023-24. The global body revised down the consumption estimate for the current year by 1.29 million tonnes from the previous estimate based on member feedback.

 

The world production outlook for 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) has also been scaled down to 179.07 million tonnes from a record production of 181.37 million tonnes in the previous sugar year. Much of this season's operations are yet to give an indication to the accuracy of our estimates, it said. However, a 350,000 tonnes increase in China’s sugar production is the biggest change to the November outlook, according to the report. 

 

The global sugar body has scaled down import demand for the current season to 64.41 million tonnes from 69.10 million tonnes because of an increase in self-sufficiency or domestic production in net-importing countries. It has also lowered export availability to 63.13 million tonnes in 2023-24 as compared to 69.56 million tonnes due to the lower notional white premium, which makes the re-export of processed imported raw sugar less profitable, assuming sales are based on the white sugar futures market.

 

The 2024-25 ending stocks are seen down at 96.54 million tonnes, down from 97.78 million tonnes in the previous year. The stocks-consumption ratio is also seen down at 53.17% in the current season from 54.3% in the last season.

 

The organisation has maintained a 'neutral' price outlook over the next three months.

 

For 2024-25, the global body sees India's production at 29.3 million tonnes, while consumption is seen at 29 million tonnes. It sees India's net exports at 1 million tonnes and ending stocks at 12.6 million tonnes in the ongoing sugar year. In top producer Brazil, production is seen at 42.16 million tonnes and exports are seen at 32.0 million tonnes.

 

ETHANOL

The estimate for global ethanol production in 2024 has been revised higher to 117.7 billion litres from 112.80 billion litres in 2023. "These forecasts have been revised upward since August, with US production increasing by 750 million litres to reach 60.48 billion litres, helped by record-breaking exports, while India adds 200 million litres through expanded grain-based ethanol production to reach 6.7 billion litres.," the organisation said. 

 

Meanwhile, ethanol consumption in 2024 is projected to rise to 115.7 billion litres from 109.1 billion litres in 2023, due to growth in Brazil and India, the global body said. "Brazil's 4.57 billion litre consumption increase and India's 1.61 billion litre growth demonstrate the market's potential through supportive policies and competitive pricing," it said.

 

The global body has also said that the preliminary projections for ethanol production in 2025 is expected to rise to 119.6 billion litres and consumption increase to 118.0 billion litres due to expansion of India's ethanol-inclusion programme. End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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