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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024

 

NEW DELHI – The stage is set for polling to elect the 288-member Maharashtra Legislative Assembly after a fierce electoral campaign. The state is mostly witnessing a bipolar contest, with the ruling "Mahayuti", or grand alliance, of the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Shiv Sena, and the Nationalist Congress Party being challenged by the Maha Vikas Agadi alliance of the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar).

 

Caste polarisation has taken centre stage in the election. Concerned by the shifting of votes from the Other Backward Classes, tribals, Dalits, and Marathas to the Maha Vikas Aghadi in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year, the BJP launched a divisive campaign built around the slogans "Batenge toh katenge" and "Ek hain to safe hain”. Prime Minister Narendra Modi repeatedly used the latter slogan during his rallies, warning voters of an alleged conspiracy of the Congress and its allies to divide the country on caste lines for political gain.

 

Political commentator Sameer Chougaonkar, author of the books Operation Shivsena and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh: Past and Future, said caste is the main factor in the election. "In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the other backward classes and Dalit votes shifted to the Congress and its allies," he said. "If voting patterns remain as they were for the Lok Sabha, the Maha Vikas Aghadi will get a majority." He added that the situation on the ground did not seem to have changed drastically.

 

The BJP-led alliance is also relying heavily on welfare schemes launched by the Eknath Shinde-led government after the setback in the Lok Sabha polls, like the Laadki Bahin Yojana, similar to the Laadli Behana Yojana launched by BJP governments in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, with women getting a monthly dole of INR 1,500.

 

The Mahayuti has promised to increase the monthly allowance for women to INR 2,100, waive farm loans, and increase the pension of senior citizens to INR 2,000 from INR 1,500, among other sops. The BJP is contesting 148 seats while the Shiv Sena led by Shinde is contesting 80 and the NCP led by Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar is contesting 53.

 

For the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the key to forming the government would be to repeat its performance in the general election. The alliance won 30 of the state's 48 Lok Sabha seats after Dalits, Muslims, tribals, Marathas, and a chunk of the Other Backward Classes moved to its side. The BJP-led alliance could win only 17 seats. The BJP’s own tally fell to nine, from 23 in 2019.

 

The Congress is contesting 103 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) 92, and NCP(SP) 81. The opposition bloc has been aggressively raising the issues of Dalits and tribals and projecting itself as the saviour of the Constitution. It has focused on setting the narrative of a battle of ideologies at the grassroots, portraying the BJP as a destroyer of the Constitution and as anti-Dalit, anti-tribal, and anti-Muslim.

 

Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi promised that if the opposition alliance wins, it will work for a caste survey in the state and for removal of the 50?p on reservations. The Maha Vikas Aghadi has also promised its own sops--INR 3,000 monthly allowance for women under the Mahalaxmi scheme, INR 100,000 for girls upon reaching 18 years of age, and so on.

 

The bloc has also attacked the BJP-led alliance over the Dharavi redevelopment project in Mumbai, which has been allotted to industrialist Gautam Adani. The opposition has alleged irregularities in the project and asserted that if it forms the government, the tender will be cancelled. Gandhi said the redevelopment of Dharavi will be decided by those living there and not by a billionaire.

 

Chougaonkar observed that in the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the votes of the alliance partners are getting transferred to the allies. But in the Mahayuti, Ajit Pawar's NCP appears to be the weak link. In the Lok Sabha polls, voters of Ajit Pawar's faction did not vote for the other partners of the Mahayuti. Ajit Pawar's group won just one seat and its vote share was around 3.6%, while the vote share of the Sharad Pawar faction was 10% and it won eight seats. The vote share of Shinde's Sena was also less than that of the Thackeray faction.

 

Chougaonkar said the demand for reservation for Marathas is another contentious issue. Marathas constitute about 30% of the state's population and have the power to swing the results, he said. In the Lok Sabha polls, Marathas voted for the opposition bloc to express their anger against the BJP-led alliance over the reservation issue.

 

On Wednesday, when people cast their votes, they will not only elect the next government of the state, but also deliver their verdict on the splits in the Shiv Sena and the NCP. Chougaonkar said public sympathy is still with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.

 

In 2019, assembly elections were held in Maharashtra on Oct. 21 and the results were announced on Oct. 24. The BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena contested together and secured a majority by winning 161 seats--105 for the BJP and 56 for the Sena. The undivided NCP won 54 seats and the Congress, 44. The Samajawadi Party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, and Prahar Janshakti Party won two seats each. The Bahujan Vikas Aghadi won three seats, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, Peasants and Workers Party of India, Swabhimani Paksha, Jan Surajya Shakti, Krantikari Shetkari Paksha, and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha won one seat each. Independents won 13.

 

After the polls, the state was plunged into turmoil when the Sena declined to support the BJP in government formation as the power-sharing deal between them collapsed. The developments led to the imposition of President’s rule. However, on Nov. 23, President’s rule was revoked and the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis took oath as chief minister and the NCP's Ajit Pawar was sworn in as deputy chief minister. Both resigned after the Supreme Court ordered the government to prove its majority in the assembly.

 

The undivided Shiv Sena, the undivided NCP, and the Congress, along with the Samajwadi Party and the Peasants and Workers Party of India, formed a post-poll alliance, the Maha Vikas Agadi, and staked their claim to form the government. On Nov. 28, 2019, Uddhav Thackeray was sworn in as chief minister. However, the government fell in June 2022 when the Sena split and a faction led by Eknath Shinde broke away to align with the BJP.

 

On June 30, 2022, the state witnessed the formation of a third government with Shinde taking oath as chief minister and Fadnavis becoming deputy chief minister.

 

In July 2023, the NCP split when Ajit Pawar and several others broke away to join the ruling alliance. Ajit Pawar also became deputy chief minister.

 

Given this history, there is much more at stake in Maharashtra this time than mere control of the state government.

 

Reported by Kuldeep Singh

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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