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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024

MUMBAI – The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently on 'La Nina watch', which could mean there is a possibility of the formation of La Nina, The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, said in its fortnightly forecast Tuesday. 

Of the six climate models surveyed, only one model suggests that the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to exceed the La Nina threshold, which is below (-)0.8 degrees Celcius through December to February, the bureau said. 

However, the El Nio-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and will remain so till February 2025, with surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean likely to remain within (-)0.8 degree Celsius to 0.8 degree Celsius, The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, said in its fortnightly forecast Tuesday.
 

If La Nina develops, it is likely to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all climate models forecasting El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutrality by March 2025, the bureau said. To classify current conditions as a La Nina event, the cool waters in the tropical Pacific, and corresponding atmospheric indicators, must be sustained for at least two to three months, it said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole will remain neutral in November, the agency said. All the surveyed climate models also indicate that the Indian Ocean Dipole index will either meet or exceed the negative Indian Ocean Dipole threshold in November, with all but one model returning to neutral levels in December, it said. In order to be classified as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, the index needs to be below the negative Indian Ocean Dipole threshold for a sustained period of at least six to eight weeks.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole typically sees above average winter-spring rainfall in Australia, while a positive phase brings drier-than-average seasons.

The latest global model forecasts indicate a higher chance of La Nina conditions developing during Nov-Dec, the India Meteorological Department said on Nov. 1. However, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to continue over the Indian Ocean during the next several months, it said. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole brings good rainfall to India.

Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, respectively, the Met Department said. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall. 

Since Oct. 1, India has received 10% below normal rainfall at 81.5 mm, according to data provided by the domestic weather bureau.

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Vidhi Verma

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