Informist Poll
Oct WPI inflation seen at 4-month high of 2.5%
This story was originally published at 16:43 IST on 11 November 2024
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India's wholesale inflation likely rose to a four-month high of 2.5% in October, primarily due to a rise in food prices, according to the median of estimates of 11 economists polled by Informist. WPI inflation was 1.84% in September and (-)0.26% in October 2023.
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is scheduled to release WPI data for October at 1200 IST on Thursday.
Wholesale prices of food items climbed higher in October, with those of vegetables, edible oils, wheat, and most pulses posting sequential increases. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomato jumped 42.1% on month in October, while those of onion and potato were up 6.2% and 2.0%, respectively. Prices of edible oils increased 4.2-13.6% last month from September, data from the government showed. Meanwhile, wholesale prices of wheat rose 1.8% on month.
The sequential rise in wholesale prices of food items will come on the back of a 1.1% month-on-month increase in the food index of the WPI in September, which helped propel WPI food inflation to a 25-month high of 9.47% in September.
While food prices rose in October, core inflation--or inflation that excludes food and fuel items--is expected to have remained muted at around 0%, Teresa John, deputy head of research and economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, said in a note. In September, core WPI inflation declined to a five-month low of 0.1%, as prices of manufactured products--which make up the core items--rose 1.00% on year, down from 1.22% in August. The 1.00% rise in manufactured products’ prices in September was the joint-lowest since April.
So far in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), WPI inflation has averaged 2.10%, up from (-)0.71% in FY24.
Even if WPI inflation prints at a four-month high in October, it will remain significantly below its retail counterpart. As per a separate Informist poll, CPI inflation likely rose to a 14-month high of 5.9% in October, data for which will be released at 1600 IST on Tuesday.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in October:
Range of expectations: 2.0-3.0%
Mean: 2.4%
Median: 2.5%
Mode: 2.0%
|
ORGANISATION |
WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
|
Acuite Ratings and Research |
2.0% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
2.0% |
|
YES Bank |
2.18% |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services |
2.2% |
|
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities |
2.4% |
|
ICRA |
2.5% |
|
State Bank Of India |
2.5% |
|
Sunidhi Securities |
2.59% |
|
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership |
2.6% |
|
ICICI Bank |
2.6% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
3.0% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vidhi Verma
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