Informist Poll
Sept IIP growth seen at 2.6% after contracting 0.1% in Aug
This story was originally published at 14:27 IST on 11 November 2024
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - India's industrial output likely grew in September after contracting in August, according to an Informist poll. As per the median of estimates of 17 economists, industrial output as per the Index of Industrial Production grew 2.6% in September, aided by a favourable base.
India's industrial output had declined for the first time in 22 months in August, shrinking by 0.1%. In September last year, industrial growth had come in at 6.4%.
The National Statistical Office will release IIP data for September on Tuesday at 1600 IST instead of the usual 1730 IST. The statistics ministry had last week announced a revision in the publication time of its key economic data, bringing forward the release time for monthly CPI and IIP numbers and quarterly GDP data by 90 minutes from earlier 1730 IST.
In September, factory output likely rose due to a low base, with the general index of the IIP having declined 2.4% on month in September 2023. Apart from the base effect, industrial activity generally picked up in September as reflected in high-frequency indicators.
India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of the IIP, grew 2.0% on year after contracting 1.8% in August--their worst performance in 42 months. However, even the positive performance of the core sector was aided by a low base, with the overall index actually falling 0.8% sequentially in September.
Other indicators, though, do point at some improvement in activity levels. Vehicle production, for instance, rose 10.1% in September from 4.4% in August, while merchandise exports rose 0.5% compared to a contraction of 9.3% in August. The number of e-way bills generated increased 18.5% in September, against 12.9% in August. However, in another sign of mixed economic growth, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index eased to an eight-month low of 56.5 in September.
The following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in September:
Range of expectations: 0.8-4.0%
Mean: 2.8%
Median: 2.6%
Mode: 3.5%
|
ORGANISATION |
IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
|
Moody's Analytics |
0.8% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
2.0% |
|
YES Bank |
2.0% |
|
ICICI Bank |
2.3% |
|
Capital Economics |
2.4% |
|
QuantEco Research |
2.4% |
|
Deutsche Bank |
2.5% |
|
State Bank Of India |
2.5% |
|
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities |
2.6% |
|
Standard Chartered |
2.7% |
|
Sunidhi Securities |
2.86% |
|
Union Bank of India |
3.1% |
|
Acuite Ratings and Research |
3.5% |
|
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership |
3.5% |
|
ICRA |
3.8% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
4.0% |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services |
4.0% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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