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EquityWireAnalyst Concall: Lupin sees US revenue run rate $250 mln/quarter in FY26
Analyst Concall

Lupin sees US revenue run rate $250 mln/quarter in FY26

This story was originally published at 20:33 IST on 8 November 2024
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Informist, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024

 

Please click here to read all liners published on this story
--Lupin: Expect revenue from US to grow in double digit FY25
--Lupin: US sales seen around $230 mln/quarter Oct-Mar
--Lupin: Expects US sales run rate $250 mln/quarter in FY26
--Lupin: 20 respiratory pdts, 40 injectable pdts in development stage now
--Lupin: Sees strong growth momentum in US revenue going forward
--Lupin:Ranibizumab phase-III trail over, to seek OK for sale in US, EU FY25
--CONTEXT: Ranibizumab is biosimilar used to treat diabetic retinopathy
--Lupin: Expect to launch first set of diabetic weight loss GLP-1 pdts FY26
--Lupin: To launch GLP-1 pdts in India, South Africa in first phase
--Lupin:May tie up with other cos for GLP-1 pdt launch in some advanced mkts
--Lupin: Confident of delivering above market growth in India
--Lupin: Diabetic portfolio sales growth robust in India Jul-Sept
--Lupin: Expect EBITDA margin 22-23% for FY25
--Lupin: FY25 R&D spending seen around INR 18 bln
--CONTEXT: Lupin management comments in post-earnings analyst call

 

By Narayana Krishna and Ayushman Mishra

 

HYDERABAD/MUMBAI – Lupin Ltd expects a revenue run rate of $230 million per quarter in the upcoming two quarters of 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) and it may touch $250 million in FY26 in the US, aided by new product launches and market expansion for some of the key products, the company management said in a post-earnings conference call on Friday. On Thursday, the company reported a consolidated net profit of INR 8.53 billion, up 74.12% on year, on consolidated revenues of INR 56.73 billion for Jul-Sept.

 

The US business performance was strong in the September quarter, with volume-led growth in in-line products and strong performance in our respiratory portfolio, offsetting additional competition in some products like Doxycycline, the company said.

 

“With the recent successful launch of MiraBegron 50mg and Pred Forte with the CGT (Competitive Generic Therapy) exclusivity. We feel confident of delivering close to double-digit growth in the US this fiscal," Vinita D Gupta, the company's chief executive officer said on the call. She said the company will continue to improve profitability in the US, led by better product mix and higher efficiencies in the base business and is very optimistic about the long-term growth strategy in the world’s largest generic market.

 

She said Lupin has an exciting pipeline with more than 20 respiratory products and 40 injectable products in development that will enable the company to continue to drive growth for the next couple of years. Lupin's management said it successfully completed phase-III for diabetic retinotherapy biosimilar drug Ranibizumab in the latest quarter, which paves the way to file the product for regulatory approval in the US and Europe this year.

 

GLP-1 OPPORTUNITY

Lupin, one of the key players in the diabetic and respiratory segments, is gearing up to grab its pie in Glucagon-Peptide-1 or GLP-1, opportunity. The company's management said Lupin plans to launch a set of GLP-1 products in the first wave of launches, which is in FY26.

 

The company's management said several generic players across the globe are working on a long list of products in this category as patents of some of the products in this segment are set to expire from 2030 onwards.

 

While the company will enter into the Indian and South African markets on its own, the management said Lupin will partner with other companies to enter into advanced markets. On the manufacturing of the GLP-1 products, the company is gearing up to make some products on its own and may outsource some if necessary. For Semaglutide, the company will make both bulk drugs and formulations on its own in India, the management said.

 

INDIA GROWTH

Lupin said the company has outperformed the Indian pharmaceutical market in Apr-Sept by achieving 30% more sales than the industry growth. The company reported outperforming growth in the cardiac, respiratory and diabetic portfolios in India.

 

“I would like to specifically call out our diabetes portfolio, which was challenged in the past due to loss of exclusivities on brands. Our diabetes business now grew 19% year-over-year, against a category growth of 9% in the Jul-Sept quarter,” Gupta said.

 

“We feel confident on continuing to deliver above-market growth in our India formulations business backed by a strong portfolio of innovative and in-licensed products and extensive reach through our 10,000 people sales force,” she said.

 

EBITDA GUIDANCE

Lupin is confident of maintaining its margins despite higher costs including research and development and employee expenses going forward. The company expects to achieve its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation or EBITDA margins at 22-23% levels in FY25, the management said. Product mix, input cost management, operational efficiency and volume growth are some of the key levers likely to help the margins, the company said. For Jul-Sept, the company reported its EBITDA margin at 25.12% against 19.4% a year ago.

 

On the research and development front, the company expects its FY25 spending to be around INR 18 billion. For Jul-Sept, the company's research and development expenses were at INR 4.48 billion, 8.2% of the total sales. On Friday, shares of Lupin closed at INR 2,104.60 on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.3% from its previous close.  End

 

US$1 = INR 84.38

 

Edited by Vidhi Verma

 

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