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Informist, Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

 

HYDERABAD – Rainfall over south peninsular India during November is most likely to be above normal in the ongoing phase of the northeast monsoon, the India Meteorological Department said Friday in its monthly long-range forecast.

 

The weather bureau said in November, rainfall over southern parts of the country is likely to be over 123% of the long-period average. Based on the agency's data from 1971-2020, the long-period average of rainfall over the south peninsula in November is 118.7 mm. 

 

Precipitation over southern parts of the country during the Oct-Dec northeast monsoon season is crucial for the sowing of rabi crops, which include chana and wheat.  

 

For the country as a whole, rainfall is forecast to be normal at 77-123% of the long-period average, the bureau said. Based on the department's historical data, the long-period average of rainfall over India in November is 29.7 mm. 

 

Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except northwest India and some parts of central India, where below normal rainfall is likely in November, the weather bureau said. 

 

The Met department said above normal maximum temperatures are very likely over northeast and east central India and some parts of northwest and south peninsular India. Meanwhile, west central India and adjoining areas of northwest India and north peninsular India are forecast to see normal to below normal maximum temperatures, it said. 

 

Above normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely, the weather department said. 

The latest global model forecasts indicate a higher chance of La Nina conditions developing during Nov-Dec, the weather bureau said. However, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to continue over the Indian Ocean during the next several months, it said. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole brings good rainfall to India.

 

Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, respectively, the Met Department said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall. 

 

The weather department said northeast monsoon rains commenced over southern peninsular India on Oct. 15 against its usual date of Oct. 20. Despite the early onset, the country received 75.7 mm of rainfall in October, just 0.4?ove normal, the department's data showed.

 

Rainfall over south peninsular India was 12?ove normal at 170.3 mm in October, the bureau said. Rainfall in northwest India during October was 76?low normal, while it was 5% lower in central India, the department said. In east and north-east India, precipitation was 14% higher at 104.8 mm, it said.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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