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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024

MUMBAI – The El Nino-Southern Oscillation will be neutral till February 2025, with surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean likely to remain within (-)0.8 degree Celsius to 0.8 degree Celsius, The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, said in its fortnightly forecast Tuesday.

However, of the six other climate models surveyed, only one suggests the ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may touch or fall below the La Nina threshold, which is (-)0.8 degree Celsius during November to February, the bureau said. A survey using another climate model showed that the ocean surface temperatures are likely to fall below the La Nina threshold, but only for December and January, it said. 

"Should a La Nina develop in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models indicating neutral-ENSO (El-Nino-Southern Oscillation) by February 2025," the Australian weather bureau said. For the present conditions to be classified as a La Nina event, the cool waters in the tropical Pacific, and corresponding atmospheric indicators, must be sustained for at least two to three months, it said.

The India Meteorological Department earlier this month said there is a 71% chance of La Nina conditions emerging in Oct-Nov. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina states in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is associated with a drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall. 

Since Oct. 1, India has received 2% above normal rainfall at 74.4 mm, according to data provided by the domestic weather bureau.

Australia's weather department also said the Indian Ocean Dipole index will meet or go below the negative threshold, (-)0.4 degree Celsius, in November, before returning to neutral values during December. "To be classified as a negative IOD event, the index would need to show sustained values below the negative IOD threshold, for at least 6 to 8 weeks," it said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in sea surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole typically sees above average winter-spring rainfall in Australia, while a positive phase brings drier-than-average seasons.  End

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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