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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024

 

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--Trade secy: Sept, Apr-Sept trade data in positive territory for mfg, svcs
--Trade secy: India goods exports doing much better than global average
--Trade secy: Sept good month for trade despite headwinds
--India Sept exports $34.58 bln vs $34.41 bln yr ago
--India Sept imports $55.36 bln vs $54.49 bln yr ago
--India Sept trade deficit $20.78 bln vs $20.08 bln year ago
--India Sept exports $34.58 bln, up 0.5% YoY
--India Sept imports $55.36 bln, up 1.6% YoY
--India Apr-Sept exports $213.22 bln vs $211.08 bln yr ago
--India Apr-Sept exports $213.22 bln, up 1.0% YoY
--India Apr-Sept imports $350.66 bln vs $330.32 bln yr ago
--India Apr-Sept imports $350.66 bln, up 6.2% YoY
--India Apr-Sept trade deficit $137.44 bln vs $119.24 bln year ago
--India Sept non-oil exports at $29.85 bln vs $27.95 bln yr ago
--India Sept non-oil imports at $42.82 bln vs $40.48 bln yr ago
--India Apr-Sept gold imports $27.10 bln
--India Sept engineering goods exports $9.82 bln vs $8.89 bln yr ago
--India Sept electronic goods exports $2.07 bln vs $1.92 bln yr ago
--Trade secy: Not concerned by monthly spikes in gold imports
--Trade secy: Not alarmed by high gold imports
--India Sept gold imports $4.39 bln vs $4.11 bln year ago
--Trade secy: Sept petroleum imports $12.5 bln 
 

 

NEW DELHI – India's merchandise trade deficit fell to a five-month low of $20.78 billion in September from $29.64 billion in August, data released by the commerce ministry Wednesday showed, as exports rose on a year-on-year basis after a gap of two months.

 

According to the data, India's merchandise exports edged up 0.5% on year in September to $34.58 billion, while imports rose 1.6% to $55.36 billion. Like the trade deficit, India's merchandise imports in September were also at their lowest in five months, after having hit an all-time high of $64.36 billion in August.

 

For Apr-Sept, India's merchandise trade deficit was $137.44 billion, up from $119.24 billion in the first half of 2023-24 (Apr-Mar). Exports in Apr-Sept totalled $213.22 billion, registering growth of just 1.0% compared to Apr-Sept 2023, while imports were 6.2% higher at $350.66 billion. 

 

On the tepid growth in exports in September, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said Wednesday that the global trade outlook is currently clouded by geopolitical risks and a slowdown in demand from the US and China. Despite these headwinds, there has been some recovery in trade statistics, and the Apr-Sept data shows that India's manufacturing and service sector exports have been in positive trajectory, Barthwal said, adding that goods exports particularly were doing much better than the global average. 

 

Last month, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal had also said that there were concerns over global trade growth on account of the two ongoing wars. He was referring to the Russia-Ukraine war that started in February 2022 and the conflict in West Asia involving Israel, Palestine, and Iran that started last year. According to the World Trade Organization, global trade contracted 1.2% in 2023 due to geopolitical conflicts. For this year, the WTO has projected a rebound in global trade, saying it is expected to grow 2.6%.

 

Considering the concerns regarding the export of goods, Barthwal said that sectors which the government has supported with production-linked incentives are doing better. Data showed that in September, engineering goods exports were at $9.82 billion against $8.89 billion a year ago. On the other hand, electronic goods exports were $2.07 billion in September, higher than the $1.92 billion a year ago. 

 

The high imports during Apr-Sept also had to take into account the all-time high gold imports in August, which more than doubled to $10.06 bln from $4.94 bln a year ago. This was after the government in the Union Budget for 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) cut the basic customs duty levied on the precious metal to 6% from 15% in July. Gold imports for Apr-Sept were $27.10 billion, up 21.8% on year. In September, India imported gold worth $4.39 billion, slightly higher than $4.11 billion in the same month a year ago.

 

Barthwal said though the spike in gold imports in August was sharp, the ministry was not too concerned about these monthly "blips". "We do not like to draw conclusions just from a month's data," he said, adding that on a year-to-date basis, the government was not alarmed by the rise in gold imports.

 

In September, non-oil imports were at $42.82 billion, up 5.8% on year, and exports of the same were up 6.8% on year at $29.85 billion.

 

Interestingly, India's crude oil imports fell in September as well, down 10.4% to $12.54 billion from $14.00 billion a year ago. In line with this, the export of petroleum products declined for the fourth consecutive month to $4.74 billion in September, down 26.7% from last year. Barthwal said the fall in prices of crude oil had a huge role to play in the decline in exports and imports of the commodity. Since September last year, Brent crude oil prices have cooled from $90-95 per barrel to $70-75. 

 

The following tables detail trade data for September and Apr-Sept, in billion dollars, and the percentage changes:

 

	September 2024	September 2023	Year-on-year change (%)
Exports	34.58	34.41	0.5
Engineering goods	9.82	8.89	10.6
Gems and jewellery	2.82	3.19	(-)11.5
Petroleum products	4.74	6.46	(-)26.7
Imports	55.36	54.49	1.6
Oil imports	12.54	14.00	(-)10.4
Non-oil imports	42.82	40.48	5.8
Electronic goods	8.47	8.08	4.9
Gold	4.39	4.11	6.9
Trade deficit	20.78	20.08	3.5

 

	Apr-Sept	Apr-Sept	Year-on-year change (%)
	2024-25	2023-24
Exports	213.22	211.08	1.0
Imports	350.66	330.32	6.2
Oil imports	88.91	83.96	5.9
Non-oil imports	261.75	246.36	6.2
Gold imports	27.10	22.25	21.8
Trade deficit	137.44	119.24	15.3

 

End

US$1 = INR 84.00

 

Reported by Priyasmita Dutta

Edited by Tanima Banerjee and Avishek Dutta

 

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