Earnings Outlook
Adani Ports Jul-Sept consol PAT likely to jump 43% YoY
This story was originally published at 15:03 IST on 16 October 2024
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By Sunil Raghu
AHMEDABAD – Weather disturbances at the flagship port Mundra during Jul-Sept may fail to curtail the on-year jump in the cargo traffic handled, net profit, and revenues for Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. in the September quarter. The private sector port major's consolidated net profit for Jul-Sept is expected to jump substantially by 42.82% on year to INR 24.96 billion, according to an estimate of four brokerages. Though sequentially, the net profit is expected to fall 19.81%.
Revenue of the company for the quarter is seen rising 7.88% on year to INR 71.70 billion. This too is, as per the research reports by four brokerages, estimated to fall 5.15% on quarter, despite rising volumes.
Adani Ports has already announced that its port volumes during Jul-Sept were at 110.9 million tonnes, up 9.8% on year from 101 million tonnes in Jul-Sept 2023. In Apr-Jun 2024, the company's ports clocked a volume of 108.9 million tonnes.
The company's multiple ports and terminals across the nation handled a total of 219.8 million tonnes of cargo in Apr-Sept, a rise of 8.5% on year. This growth in cargo was primarily driven by containers, which rose 19% on year, and liquids and gas, which rose 8% on year. Within the logistics segment, quarterly rail volumes were at 310,000 twenty feet equivalent units, up 11% on year, and General Purpose Wagon Investment Scheme volumes at 10.7 million tonnes, up 20% on year.
The company's flagship port at Mundra, in Gujarat, achieved the milestone of crossing the 100-million-tonne mark in 181 days, despite losing up to 2 million tonnes of cargo to bad weather in August.
Among the brokerages polled, Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. estimated the lowest net profit for Adani Ports in Jul-Sept at INR 23.54 billion, while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. estimated the highest net profit at INR 25.59 billion. As for Adani Ports' revenues in Jul-Sept, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has the lowest estimate of INR 70.15 billion, while Motilal Oswal has the highest estimate at INR 73.27 billion.
Adani Ports is yet to announce the date of its September quarter earnings.
Among the analysts polled, Elara Securities sees Adani Ports' consolidated revenue improving 12% on year, with an earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation, or EBITDA, margin of 71%, down 70 basis points on quarter. It sees growth to be primarily lower due to hampering of operations at Mundra Port due to bad weather, resulting in a loss of 2 million tonnes in volumes. As for Adani Logistics, Elara expects Adani Ports to clock a likely revenue growth of 15%, led by continued rise in rail volumes and EBITDA margins stable at 25%.
Kotak Institutional Equities, on its part, sees the impact of loss of Mundra volumes to be 2% of the volumes. However, Kotak has modelled a 10% on-year improvement in the revenues for Adani Ports, driven by a combination of organic volume growth of 8.5% and a boost from realisations, the research firm said in its pre-earnings report on Adani Ports. It also models EBITDA margins for the September quarter at 59%, same as Jul-Sept 2023-24 (Apr-Mar).
Motilal Oswal in its report expects revenue for Adani Ports to jump 10% on year to INR 73.3 billion, driven by 10% growth in port volumes and 13% growth in the logistics business. It expects EBITDA at INR 43.2 billion, with EBITDA margins to improve 60 basis points on quarter. Improvement in utilisation at the existing and recently acquired ports and growth in the logistics business remain the key monitorables for Motilal Oswal.
The average of EBITDA as estimated by four brokerages was INR 42.84 billion, ranging from INR 42.58 billion to INR 43.23 billion.
In Jul-Sept FY24, the company's consolidated net profit was at INR 17.48 billion on a revenue of INR 66.46 billion. At 1355 IST, shares of the company traded 1.9% lower at INR 1,394.05 per share on the National Stock Exchange.
Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Adani Ports from four brokerage houses (in INR million):
|
Broker Name |
Net Sales |
Net Profit |
EBITDA |
|
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. |
70,289.00 |
23,542.00 |
42,577.00 |
|
Kotak Institutional Equities |
73,111.00 |
25,435.00 |
42,770.00 |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. |
73,265.00 |
25,587.00 |
43,226.00 |
|
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. |
70,146.00 |
25,288.00 |
42,789.00 |
|
Average |
71,702.75 |
24,963.00 |
42,840.00 |
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Manisha Baxla
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