More Stories

Informist, Monday, Oct. 14, 2024

 

Please click here to read all liners published on this story

--OPEC: OECD Aug crude oil stocks down 8.4 mln bbl on month at 2.83 bln bbl
--OPEC: OECD Aug crude oil stocks 157 mln bbl lower than 2015-2019 avg
--OPEC cuts growth view for oil demand in 2024 by 106,000 bpd to 1.9 mln bpd
--OPEC cuts growth view for oil demand in 2025 by 102,000 bpd to 1.6 mln bpd
--OPEC keeps non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2024 unch at 1.2 mln bpd
--OPEC keeps non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2025 unch at 1.1 mln bpd
--OPEC oil production in Sept at 26.04 mln bpd, down 604,000 bpd on month
--OPEC, allies' oil output in Sept 40.10 mln bpd, down 560,000 bpd on month
--OPEC: Saudi Arabia Sept oil output nearly 9 mln bpd, down 23,000 bpd on mo
--OPEC: Libya Sept oil output at 540,000 bpd, down 410,000 bpd on month
 

 

MUMBAI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has slightly revised downward its forecasts for growth in global crude oil demand for 2024 and 2025. The growth forecast for 2024 has been trimmed by nearly 106,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, but still well above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, OPEC said in its October Oil Market Report. The cartel sees demand for crude oil in 2025 rising by 1.6 million barrels per day, 102,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month's estimate.

 

Demand for oil from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries is expected to grow by around 100,000 million barrels per day in 2024, with OECD Americas accounting for most of the contribution, according to the report. Demand for oil in non-OECD countries is expected to grow by around 1.5 million barrels per day this year led by China, other Asia, West Asia, and India, it said.

 

OPEC now sees total demand for oil in 2024 at 104.1 million barrels per day and in 2025 at 105.78 million barrels per day. "Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 105.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 4Q24, to average 104.1 mb/d in 2024, bolstered by strong air travel demand and road mobility, including trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities, primarily in non-OECD countries," OPEC said.

 

Refinery capacity additions in non-OECD countries – mostly in China and West Asia – are also expected to contribute to growth in oil demand. The global growth forecast is subject to uncertainties, including global economic developments, it said.  

 

The cartel has increased its forecast for crude oil demand from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (OPEC and allies) in 2024 by 100,000 barrels per day to 45.78 million barrels per day. In 2025, the call on OPEC and allies is to produce 45.9 million barrels per day, 2.5 million barrels per day higher than its previous estimate, according to the report.

 

India's oil demand in 2024 is seen at 5.6 million barrels per day, 5% higher than in 2023, OPEC said. In 2025, the country is expected to consume nearly 5.9 million barrels per day of oil. Both estimates are steady from those in the previous month's report.

 

In September, OPEC's crude oil production fell 604,000 barrels per day to 26.04 million barrels per day, according to secondary sources cited by the cartel. Production mainly fell in Libya and Iraq last month. Production in Libya fell by 410,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 540,000 barrels per day and production in Iraq fell by 155,000 barrels per day to 4.11 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer of the group, produced nearly 9.0 million barrels per day of crude oil last month, down 23,000 barrels per day from August.

 

Production of crude oil by OPEC and its allies in September was 40.1 million barrels per day, down 557,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Production in Russia fell 28,000 barrels per day, according to the report.

 

The cartel has forecast growth in oil supply from countries outside of OPEC and allies at 1.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous estimate. "The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada and Brazil," it said. In 2025, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day, which also remains unchanged from the previous projection. "The growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway."

 

In August, crude oil commercial stocks with OECD countries fell by 8.4 million barrels per day to nearly 2.83 billion barrels, according to the report. Stocks in August were 154 million barrels lower than the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average.

 

At 1718 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $73.88 per barrel and that of Brent oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was $77.44 per barrel, both down 2% from the previous close.  End

 

US$1 = INR 84.06

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy and Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2024. All rights reserved.