Bank Stocks Outlook
In focus as earnings loom; margin contraction to weigh
This story was originally published at 20:39 IST on 11 October 2024
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024
MUMBAI – Shares of banks are expected to be in focus next week as the earnings season takes centre stage. The growing gap between deposits and credit growth of banks is expected to weigh on the margins, which may end up affecting their profitability, analysts said.
The gap has prompted some banks to mobilise retail deposits and even raise long-term bonds, which in a way could have some impact on margins amid the continued rise in deposit cost, Emkay Global said in a note. "On an overall basis, we expect margin contraction QoQ (on quarter) to be range-bound at 2-10 bps with a relatively higher fall for a few banks as the one-off benefit," it said.
Among the banks that will detail their Jul-Sept earnings next week are Bank Of Maharashtra, South Indian Bank, Axis Bank, Central Bank Of India, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Karur Vysya Bank, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
"If the index sustains above the high of the hammer candle which is around 51,785, Bank Nifty could test levels of 52,500–52,800. Until then, sideways consolidation is likely to continue. On the downside, 50,190 will provide strong support for Bank Nifty, where the low of the hammer candle is placed," said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates.
On Friday, the Nifty Bank index closed 0.7% lower at 51172.30 on the National Stock Exchange.
Shares may also be under pressure from escalating tensions in West Asia.
TOP HEADLINES
* Federal Bank sells 9.81% stake in Equirus Capital
* Bandhan Bank recovers INR 5.43 billion from bad loan insurance, claims
* Sammaan Capital says will forfeit shares if call money not paid by Oct 30
* RBI OKs appointment of Partha Pratim Sengupta as MD, CEO of Bandhan Bank
* Bank of Baroda keeps MCLR unchanged across tenures
* IREDA sees 36% on-yr rise in Jul-Sept PAT on similar rise in total income
* Give credit information cos data even if licence cancelled - RBI to lenders
* NCLT admits Reliance Commercial Fin insolvency plea against Summit Ceminfra
* MF industry sees net outflows Sept driven by debt funds, AMFI data shows
* INTERVIEW: LCR norms to hit credit if banks' deposits don't grow - UCO Bk ED
* Canara Bank to raise MCLR by 5 bps on most tenures from Saturday
* Brickwork Ratings ups IDFC FIRST Bk NCDs outlook to 'stable', reaffirms rtg
* Bk of Maharashtra gross loans up 18.7% YoY as of Sept 30; deposits up 15.5%
* CreditAccess Grameen's AUM rises 12% on year to INR 251.33 bln as of Sept 30
* RBI Policy: Closely monitoring data on stress in few sectors, says Das
* RBI Policy: To float paper on capital raising for primary urban co-op bks
* RBI Policy: NBFCs must follow strong risk management framework
* RBI Policy: Text of MPC's fourth bi-monthly statement for FY25
* CCI OKs JM Fincl's acquisition of 42.99% stake in JM Fincl Credit Solutions
* TREND: Lower rates boost fundraising via corporate bonds 77% on year in Sept
* TREND: Sept CD issues surge as banks rush to bridge deposit-loan growth gap
* CARE reaffirms RBL Bank's tier-II bond rating at 'AA-', CD rating at 'A1+'
* India Ratings assigns 'AA-' rtg to Equitas Small Fin Bank's tier-II bonds
* YES Bank receives INR 4.54 bln from 2 trusts for NPA sale to JC Flowers ARC
* HDFC Bank hikes MCLR by 5 bps for 6-month, 3-year tenure, effective Oct 7
* UCO Bank keeps MCLR unchanged across tenures
* HDFC Bank board approves sale of HDFC Education for INR 1.92 bln
* Union Bank total advances at INR 9.29 tln as on Sept 30, up 9.6% on year
* Indian Bank gross advances INR 5.51 tln on Sept 30, up 12% on year
* Equitas Small Finance Bank's gross advances up 15.4% on year as of Sept 30
* Ujjivan Small Finance Bank loans up 14% YoY, deposits rise 17% as on Sept 30
* CRISIL upgrades Federal Bank's fixed deposits to 'AAA', reaffirms CD rating
* IDBI Bank net advances rise 19% on year as of Sept 30, total deposits up 11%
* RBL Bank's gross advances rise 15% on year as on Sept 30, deposits up 20%
* Federal Bank gross advances up 19.3% on yr as of Sept 30, deposits up 15.6%
* IDFC FIRST Bank's loans rise 21.3% on year as of Sept 30, deposits up 32.2%
* IndusInd Bank's net advances up 13% on year, deposits up 15% as of Sept 30
* UCO Bank's total advances at INR 1.98 tln as of Sept 30, up 18.56% on year
* Edelweiss Financial Services to raise up to INR 2 bln via NCD public issue
Following are the resistance and support levels for the stocks for next week as per calculations by Informist based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-Week Change in % | Resistance | Support |
| AU Small Finance Bank | 690.4 | (-)4.00 | 713.00 | 677.40 |
| Axis Bank | 1172.45 | (-)0.50 | 1197.80 | 1153.40 |
| Bandhan Bank | 210.26 | 12.50 | 220.20 | 193.50 |
| Federal Bank | 187.55 | (-)3.20 | 191.10 | 183.90 |
| HDFC Bank | 1651.00 | (-)0.40 | 1674.10 | 1631.70 |
| ICICI Bank | 1223.00 | (-)1.40 | 1247.40 | 1209.80 |
| IDFC First Bank | 72.37 | 0.80 | 73.70 | 71.20 |
| IndusInd Bank | 1347.60 | (-)2.60 | 1384.90 | 1320.30 |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 1882.40 | 4.10 | 1911.50 | 1846.60 |
| Punjab National Bank | 104.91 | (-)0.90 | 106.50 | 102.50 |
| RBL Bank | 204.41 | 3.40 | 207.90 | 198.70 |
| State Bank of India | 799.75 | 0.40 | 808.20 | 788.80 |
| Nifty Bank | 51172.30 | (-)0.60 | 51800.20 | 50691.90 |
| Nifty 50 | 24964.25 | (-)0.20 | 25079.60 | 24862.40 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 81381.36 | (-)0.40 | 81819.50 | 81085.10 |
End
US$1 = INR 84.06
Reported by Kabir Sharma
Edited by Saji George Titus
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