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Informist, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

 

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--India Aug industrial growth -0.1% vs 10.9% year ago 
--Informist poll estimated Aug industrial growth at 1.0% 
--India Jul industrial growth revised to 4.7% vs 4.8% provisional 
--India Aug mining sector growth -4.3% vs 12.3% year ago 
--India Aug manufacturing sector growth 1.0% vs 10.0% year ago 
--India Aug electricity sector growth -3.7% vs 15.3% year ago 
--India Aug primary goods output growth -2.6% vs 12.4% year ago 
--India Aug capital goods output growth 0.7% vs 13.1% year ago 
--India Aug intermediate goods output growth 3.0% vs 7.4% year ago 
--India Aug infra goods output growth 1.9% vs 15.7% year ago 
--India Aug consumer durables output growth 5.2% vs 6.0% year ago 
--India Aug consumer non-durables output growth -4.5% vs 9.9% year ago 
--India Apr-Aug industrial growth 4.2% vs 6.2% year ago 
--India Aug industrial growth of -0.1% lowest in 22 months 

NEW DELHI - India's industrial production contracted 0.1% on year in August, data released by the National Statistical Office showed today. At (-)0.1, industrial output contracted for the first time in 22 months in August, and was the lowest since October 2022.

 

Industrial growth, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, in August was below the consensus estimate of 1.0%, as per an Informist poll. The fall in output was largely due to an unfavourable base effect.

 

Industrial growth in July, which was provisionally estimated to be 4.8%, has now been revised downwards to 4.7%. Industrial output had grown 10.9% in August last year. For Apr-Aug, India's industrial output expanded 4.2%, lower than the 6.2% recorded in the same period last year.

 

A fall in production in the manufacturing and electricity sectors led to a contraction in industrial output in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continued to rise, albeit slower than in July. Output of the mining sector contracted 4.3% in August, compared to a growth of 3.8% in July, while electricity production was down 3.7%, against an increase of 7.9% in July.

 

Output of the manufacturing sector, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the IIP, grew 1.0% in August, slower than the 4.4% in July. The manufacturing sector output had risen 10.0% in August 2023, while the output of mining and electricity sectors grew 12.3% and 15.3%, respectively.

 

Within the use-based classification, the biggest decline was in primary goods, which contracted 2.6% in August as compared to a rise of 5.9% in July. This was the first contraction in the production of primary goods since February 2021. Consumer non-durables was the only other use-based category the output of which fell in August at (-)4.5%.

 

Production of consumer durables rose the most in August at 5.2%, but was still lower than the previous month's growth of 8.3%. While the output of all the other three categories--capital goods, intermediate goods, and infrastructure goods--grew in August, but was still lower than the previous month. 

 

"A sustained decline in consumer non-durables indicates that the stress in rural demand hasn't bottomed out yet. However, the steady growth in consumer durables is a positive for consumption demand in the economy," Paras Jasrai, senior economic analyst at India Ratings and Research, said.

 

Bank of Baroda Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis noted that industrial output growth rates are likely to improve from September, "with a peak being achieved by October-end which would be the post-harvest and festival season when spending typically increases."

 

The following tables detail year-on-year changes in industrial output in August (in %):

 

	August 2024	July 2024	August 2024
General	(-)0.1	4.7	10.9
Mining	(-)4.3	3.8	12.3
Manufacturing	1.0	4.4	10.0
Electricity	(-)3.7	7.9	15.3
Primary goods	(-)2.6	5.9	12.4
Capital goods	0.7	11.8	13.1
Intermediate goods	3.0	6.4	7.4
Infrastructure/construction goods	1.9	4.6	15.7
Consumer durables	5.2	8.3	6.0
Consumer non-durables	(-)4.5	(-)4.3	9.9

 

	Mining				Electricity				Manufacturing				General
	FY25	FY24	FY23	FY22	FY25	FY24	FY23	FY22	FY25	FY24	FY23	FY22	FY25	FY24	FY23	FY22
Apr	6.8	5.1	8.4	36.5	10.2	(-)1.1	11.8	38.5	4.2	5.5	5.6	196.0	5.2	4.6	6.7	133.5
May	6.6	6.4	11.2	23.6	13.7	0.9	23.5	7.5	5.1	6.3	20.7	32.1	6.3	5.7	19.7	27.6
Jun	10.3	7.6	7.8	23.1	8.6	4.2	16.4	8.3	3.2	3.5	12.9	13.2	4.7	4.0	12.6	13.8
Jul	3.8	10.7	(-)3.3	19.5	7.9	8.0	2.3	11.1	4.4	5.3	3.1	10.5	4.7	6.2	2.2	11.5
Aug	(-)4.3	12.3	(-)3.9	23.3	(-)3.7	15.3	1.4	16.0	1.0	10.0	(-)0.5	11.1	(-)0.1	10.9	(-)0.7	13.0
Sep		11.5	5.2	8.6		9.9	11.6	0.9		5.1	2.0	4.3		6.4	3.3	4.4
Oct		13.1	2.6	11.5		20.4	1.2	3.1		10.6	(-)5.8	3.3		11.9	(-)4.1	4.2
Nov		7.0	9.7	4.9		5.8	12.7	2.1		1.3	6.7	0.3		2.5	7.6	1.0
Dec		5.2	10.1	2.6		1.2	10.4	2.8		4.6	3.6	0.6		4.4	5.1	1.0
Jan		6.0	9.0	3.0		5.6	12.7	0.9		3.6	4.5	1.9		4.2	5.8	2.0
Feb		8.1	4.8	4.6		7.6	8.2	4.5		4.9	5.9	0.2		5.6	6.0	1.2
Mar		1.3	6.8	3.9		8.6	(-)1.6	6.1		5.9	1.5	1.4		5.5	1.9	2.2

 

	Mining	Manufacturing	Electricity	General
FY24	7.5	5.5	7.1	5.9
FY23	5.8	4.7	8.9	5.2
FY22	12.2	11.8	7.9	11.4
FY21	(-)7.8	(-)9.6	(-)0.5	(-)8.4
FY20	1.6	(-)1.4	1.0	(-)0.8
FY19	2.9	3.9	5.2	3.8
FY18	2.3	4.6	5.4	4.4
FY17	5.3	4.4	5.8	4.6
FY16	4.3	2.8	5.7	3.3
FY15	(-)1.4	3.8	14.8	4.0
FY14	(-)0.1	3.6	6.1	3.3
FY13	(-)5.3	4.8	4.0	3.3

 

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

 

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