Informist Poll
WPI inflation seen at 2.0% in September versus 1.31% in August
This story was originally published at 16:28 IST on 11 October 2024
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India’s wholesale inflation likely rose to 2.0% in September from a four-month low of 1.31% in August, according to the median of estimates of 12 economists polled by Informist. WPI inflation had come in at (-)0.07% in September 2023.
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is scheduled to release WPI inflation data for September at 1200 IST on Monday.
WPI inflation is expected to have increased in September because of a low base and an uptick in food prices, economists said. The base effect is such that if the all commodities index of the WPI remains unchanged in September from its August level--which would be indicative of no price momentum--wholesale inflation would still rise to 1.8%.
However, prices likely rose on the whole in September from the previous month. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale onion prices jumped 15.5% on month in September, while those of wheat were up 0.4%. Prices of edible oils were also higher by up to 4% last month from August, the government data showed.
On other hand, wholesale prices of tomato were down 8.5% on month in September, while prices of most pulses also declined. According to Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, WPI food articles inflation is seen sharply higher at nearly 11% in September from August’s 3.11%, with the base effect particularly unfavourable for the food articles index.
Food items apart, wholesale prices probably rose at a faster clip in September. Purchasing Managers’ Index data for the Indian manufacturing sector released earlier this month noted that “cost pressures ticked higher in September, with panellists citing increased chemical, packaging, plastic and metal prices”. However, the rise in costs was “mild” compared with historical trends.
Despite the expected increase, WPI inflation will remain well below headline retail inflation. As per a separate Informist poll, CPI inflation is expected to have risen to 5.1% in September, data for which will be released at 1730 IST on Monday.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in September:
Range of expectations: 1.48-2.2%
Mean: 1.9%
Median: 2.0%
Mode: 2.0%
|
ORGANISATION |
WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
|
Union Bank of India |
1.48% |
|
India Ratings and Research |
1.5% |
|
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership |
1.9% |
|
ICRA |
1.9% |
|
Sunidhi Securities |
1.93% |
|
CareEdge Ratings |
1.98% |
|
Acuite Ratings and Research |
2.0% |
|
Capital Economics |
2.0% |
|
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities |
2.0% |
|
State Bank Of India |
2.02% |
|
STCI Primary Dealer |
2.1% |
|
Bank of Baroda |
2.2% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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