Oil Stocks Outlook
West Asia updates, crude oil prices to lend cues next wk
This story was originally published at 23:08 IST on 4 October 2024
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MUMBAI - Analysts expect the movement of Indian oil stocks next week to be dictated largely by updates regarding the conflict in West Asia and the resultant movement in crude oil prices. Growing worries that the sabre-rattling between Iran and Israel could flare up into full-scale war and disrupt the supply of crude oil from the region pushed the commodity's price higher this week. Analysts said it is too early to conclude that the worst is over.
"Geopolitical tensions continue to threaten supply chains and commodities, as reflected in the surge in crude oil prices from December 2023 to April 2024. While the prices have since eased, any escalation in the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties could lead to a surge or constrain supply chains," CRISIL Ratings said in its report.
Shares of oil marketing stocks felt the heat this week, with Bharat Petroleum Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp., and Indian Oil Corp. closing lower for at least two sessions now. Crude oil is the key raw material used by refining companies and any surge in global prices would hit their refining margins and profits.
On the other hand, shares of crude oil producers such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp. and Oil India rose Friday. A rise in global crude oil prices helps these companies to grow their revenues without having to boost production.
TOP HEADLINES
* OPEC keeps policy unchanged; Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia pledge conformity
* Indian Oil to extend Nepal pipeline to Chitwan, build one more
* Oil cos invite bids for supply of 9.16 bln ltr ethanol in 2024-25 season
* Indian Oil cuts ATF price by INR 5,883/kl to INR 87,597.22/kl in Delhi
* IOC ups 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder price by INR 48.50 in Delhi
* WRAP:Sugar cos push cane as better ethanol feedstock, but demand looks bleak
* IOC board withdraws proposed rights issue as govt will not participate
* Govt OKs transfer of licences held by RIL's Viacom18 to Star India
* Reliance Ind liquidates Uruguay arm amid nil turnover
* Sugar cos must focus on avenues other than ethanol - petroleum secy
* CRISIL sees India adding 35-40 mln tn crude refining capacity by FY30
Following are the resistance and support levels for the sector's key stocks for next week, as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-week change in % | Resistance | Support |
| Bharat Petroleum Corp. | 340.25 | (-)7.40 | 354.50 | 327.30 |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corp. | 406.90 | (-)7.10 | 423.90 | 386.60 |
| Indian Oil Corp. | 168.65 | (-)6.30 | 173.10 | 163.40 |
| Oil & Natural Gas Corp. | 295.25 | (-)0.70 | 302.60 | 289.60 |
| Oil India | 572.75 | (-)2.40 | 599.00 | 530.80 |
| Reliance Industries | 2773.05 | (-)9.20 | 2861.60 | 2719.30 |
| Nifty 50 | 25014.60 | (-)4.50 | 25673.70 | 24637.20 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 81688.45 | (-)4.50 | 84032.10 | 80360.80 |
End
Reported by Anjana Therese Antony
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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