Bank Stocks Outlook
Seen weak; geopolitical tension may prompt sell-off
This story was originally published at 19:58 IST on 4 October 2024
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MUMBAI – Shares of Indian banks will take centre stage next week as quite a few have announced their provisional numbers this week, highlighting a slight moderation in credit growth and an uptick in deposit growth, which indicate a possible correction in net interest margins. This, coupled with a slew of geopolitical events emanating out of West Asia, will weigh on bank stocks in the coming week, analysts said. Today, the Nifty Bank index closed 0.7% lower at INR 51462.05 rupees on the National Stock Exchange.
"...the index has formed an evening star candlestick pattern, suggesting weakness or further correction ahead. Based on the daily and weekly charts, any bounce close to the 52500 levels can be seen as an opportunity to exit long positions, as the index may test 50,000 in the upcoming trading session. We recommend waiting, watching, and reviewing later in the second half of the week for more clarity," Brijesh Ali, technical analyst at IDBI Capital Securities said.
Ali also said the downfall of the index started after China introduced reforms earlier this week. On Sunday, China's central bank announced that it would instruct banks to reduce mortgage rates for current home loans prior to Oct. 31. This initiative is part of extensive measures aimed at bolstering the struggling property market amid an economic slowdown. Market participants said the recent stimulus in China may lead to some rebalancing of foreign portfolio flows in the near-term.
TOP HEADLINES
* Rtg agencies send warning on unsecured loan books, see early signs of stress
* South Indian Bank's advances up 13.1% YoY as on Sept 30, deposits up 8.6%
* Lower rtg downgrades in H1 on better corporate showing, says India Ratings
* CD issuances may keep rising amid rush for deposits, tighter norms - ICRA
* Karur Vysya Bk's advances up 13.4% on yr as on Sep 30, deposits up 15.4%
* Bk of Maharashtra's QIP of shares opens, floor price set at INR 60.37/share
* RBI finds irregularities in gold loans, advises entities to plug gaps
* Retail loan growth eases to 17% as of Aug 23 but gold loans up 41%, says RBI
* RBI data shows weighted avg lending rate on new bank loans up 1 bp in Aug
* NBFCs tap other routes for funds as bank credit slows on RBI norms - CRISIL
* RBI Swaminathan tells small finance bks to stop egregious lending practices
* Manoj Kumar Mauni resigns as CTO of Bandhan Bank
* YES Bank receives 840 mln rupees from JC Flowers ARC on NPA sale
* SEBI issues paper on disclosure norms for direct plans of MF schemes
* Tamilnad Mercantile Bk plans 40 new branches, double deposit growth
* IndusInd Bk reappoints Sumant Kathpalia as MD, CEO, effective Mar 24
Following are the resistance and support levels for the sector's key stocks for next week, as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-Week Change in % |
Resistance | Support |
| AU Small Finance Bank | 718.95 | (-)1.70 | 754.60 | 699.10 |
| Axis Bank | 1178.40 | (-)7.40 | 1213.90 | 1156.30 |
| Bandhan Bank | 186.86 | (-)8.10 | 192.50 | 183.70 |
| Federal Bank | 193.67 | (-)0.00 | 201.00 | 188.70 |
| HDFC Bank | 1657.65 | (-)5.40 | 1704.80 | 1629.50 |
| ICICI Bank | 1239.75 | (-)5.10 | 1275.00 | 1218.60 |
| IDFC First Bank | 71.83 | (-)3.20 | 73.60 | 70.40 |
| IndusInd Bank | 1382.85 | (-)5.50 | 1421.70 | 1361.50 |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 1809.00 | (-)3.40 | 1870.80 | 1767.50 |
| Punjab National Bank | 105.85 | (-)3.10 | 109.10 | 102.60 |
| RBL Bank | 197.69 | (-)4.70 | 205.40 | 192.90 |
| State Bank of India | 796.65 | (-)0.80 | 821.90 | 772.70 |
| Nifty Bank | 51462.05 | (-)4.40 | 52733.70 | 50711.50 |
| Nifty 50 | 25014.60 | (-)4.50 | 25673.70 | 24637.20 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 81688.45 | (-)4.50 | 84032.10 | 80360.80 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Kabir Sharma
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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