Lead Output
Study group sees global lead market in surplus of 63,000 tn in 2024
This story was originally published at 16:32 IST on 4 October 2024
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MUMBAI – The global refined lead surplus is expected to be at 63,000 tonnes in 2024 and increase further to 121,000 tonnes in 2025 as supply will exceed demand, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said in its latest forecast. Global refined lead supply is expected to rise by 2.4% to 13.51 million tonnes in 2025 because of increased output in Canada, China and India, it said.
Refined lead output is expected to decrease in 2024 by 0.2% to 13.2 million tonnes due to lower output in China, Poland, Sweden, and Canada. A scheduled maintenance at Teck Resources' Trail in Canada affected production in the second quarter, the report said. However, these reductions will be partially offset by rises in output in Australia, Bulgaria, India, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, and the Republic of Korea.
Global lead mine supply will grow by 1.7% in 2024 to 4.54 million tonnes due to a sharp rise in Mexico after a strike at Newmont’s Penasquito mine impacted production in 2023, it said. Increases in production are also anticipated in Australia, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan and Sweden.
The study group said global lead mine supply is likely to rise 2.1% in 2025 to 4.64 million tonnes. The rise in global supply in 2025 will be mainly because of increases in production in China, Ireland, and Russia. The new Ozernoye mine in Russia has recently started production. Output in China is expected to rise by 0.5% this year and by 1.5% in 2025, while output in Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to grow because of higher production at the Vares mine. These rises will, however, be partially balanced by a decline in Australian production, it said.
Global demand for refined lead is set to increase by 0.2% in 2024 to 13.13 million tonnes, followed by a 1.9% rise to 13.39 million tonnes in 2025, the report said. The demand for the metal in top consumer China is expected to rise by 0.9% in 2024 and by 0.5% in 2025. Chinese production of lead-acid batteries grew by 0.5% in the first half of 2024, the report said. The demand is also expected to rise in Brazil, India, South Korea, the UAE and Vietnam.
European refined lead demand is expected to fall by 1.8% in 2024 mainly because of decreases in apparent usage in Austria, the Czech Republic, France, Italy, and Poland, it said. Demand is also expected to fall in Japan, Mexico, Turkiye, and the US this year.
In 2025, the study group forecast demand to recover in Europe and Mexico and continue to rise in India and Vietnam. At 1520 IST, the most active three-month lead contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $2,154.50, up 0.6% from the previous close. End
US$1 = INR 83.96
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Ashutosh Pati
Edited by Saji George Titus
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