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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024

MUMBAI – The global demand for refined zinc will rise by 1.8% in 2024 to 13.83 million tonne, followed by a growth of 1.6% in 2025 to 14.04 million tonne, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said in its latest forecast. In China, refined zinc usage will rise by 0.7% each in 2024 and 2025. China's production of galvanised sheets, passenger cars, and home appliances increased in Jan-Jun, however investment in the real estate sector remained weak, it said.

Demand for refined zinc in Europe will fall 1% this year after declining 8.6% in 2023, mainly because of a fall in demand from Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, and Poland. This will be partially balanced by a rise in demand from Finland and France, the report said. The group expects global refined zinc demand to see a significant rise in India and South Korea in 2024. The other countries where demand is expected to increase are Brazil, Mexico, Taiwan, Turkiye and Vietnam. However, demand in the US is expected to be lower in 2024, the study group said. In 2025, zinc usage will rise in Europe, India, and Vietnam but fall in the Republic of Korea. 

The global zinc mine production will fall by 1.4% to 12.06 million tonne in 2024, the third consecutive yearly decline. However, in 2025, a recovery of 6.6% to 12.86 million tonne is expected because of a robust growth of 8.9% in the world, excluding China, the report said.

European mine output is expected to fall by 11.4% in 2024 on account of production cuts in Ireland and Portugal where the Tara and Aljustrel mines, respectively, were placed on care and maintenance in the second half of 2023. In 2025, European output is expected to rise significantly, benefiting from higher production in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal and Ireland, due to the imminent re-opening of Boliden's Tara operation, the report said.

Mined output reductions are also anticipated in China, Canada, South Africa, the US and Peru this year. Output at the Antamina mine in Peru is expected to fall substantially, it said. However, these anticipated declines will be partially compensated by increases in Australia, Mexico, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The study group expects global refined zinc production to fall by 1.8% to 13.67 million tonne in 2024. In 2025, it expects global output to rise by 3.9% to 14.19 million tonne. Chinese refined zinc output is expected to fall by 3.9% this year. Production will also fall in Peru and Canada due to the ongoing modernisation works at Glencore's zinc refinery in Quebec, it said. 

Production in Europe is expected to remain nearly unchanged this year after falling 3.9% in 2023. This will be mainly because of projected reductions in the Netherlands and Russia that will balance forecast increases in France, Germany, and Italy. In 2025, global refined zinc output will benefit from greater availability of concentrates and expected increases in production in Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, and Norway, it said.

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group expects global refined zinc deficit at 164,000 tonne in 2024 as demand exceeds supply. However, it expects a surplus of 148,000 tonne in 2025. At 2010 IST, the most-active three-month zinc contract on the London Metal Exchange was $3,132.00 per tonne, down 2% from the previous close.  End

US$1 = INR 83.96

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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