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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024

 

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--IMD: India Sept rainfall 11.6?ove normal at 187.3 mm 
--IMD: India Sept rains in east, northeast 18.2?low normal at 231.2 mm 
--IMD: India Sept rainfall in northwest 29.2?ove normal at 132.7 mm 
--IMD: Sept rainfall in central India 32.3?ove normal at 235.0 mm 
--IMD: India Sept rainfall in south peninsula 2.7?low normal at 155.7 mm 
--IMD: Neutral El Nino conditions prevailing currently 
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail over Indian Ocean 
--IMD: India Oct-Dec rainfall seen 112% of long-period average 
--CONTEXT: IMD details forecast for rains, temperature for Oct-Dec 
--IMD: See above normal maximum temperatures over most parts in Oct
--IMD: Above normal rains seen over most of central, south India in Oct-Dec 
--IMD: Normal to below-normal rains seen over most of northwest India Oct-Dec 
--IMD: India Oct rainfall seen 115% of long-period average 
 

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – Rainfall over India during Oct-Dec northeast monsoon is most likely to be above normal at 112% of the long-period average, the India Meteorological Department said Tuesday. 

 

Many parts of central and south India, and some parts of northeast India are likely to see above normal rainfall, the department said in its forecast for Oct-Dec. However, most parts of northwest India and some parts of northeast India and southernmost parts of the country are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during Oct-Dec, the Met department said.    

 

In October, most parts of the country are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall, with the forecast for the whole country seen over 115% of the long-period average, the bureau said. The long-period average of rainfall over the country as a whole in October, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, is about 75.4 mm.  

 

Most parts of the country except some parts of central India and the adjoining southern peninsula are likely to see above normal maximum temperatures during October, the IMD said. In the same period, above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, it said. 

 

Commenting about the withdrawal conditions of the southwest monsoon, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, said that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to withdraw in the next one week. The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw from India after Oct 15, he said. 

 

The director general also said heavy rainfall over Gujarat is unlikely during Navratri. However, only parts of south Gujarat and Mumbai are likely to receive light showers during this period, he added.

 

 

Withdrawal of the southwest monsoon commenced on Sept. 23, six days later than the normal date of Sept. 17, following a reduction in rainfall and the formation of an anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere, IMD said. 

 

In September, India received 187.3 mm of rainfall, 11.6?ove the normal of 167.9 mm, the department said. September rainfall was 112% of the long-period average. "The country as a whole received excess rainfall during September mainly due to the west or north-westward movement of three low-pressure systems and their associated cyclonic circulations along the monsoon trough," IMD said. Out of these, two systems intensified into deep depression, it added. 

 

Notably, September saw large excess rainfall over west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat region, and Telangana. Last month, central India received 32.3?ove normal rainfall at 235.0 mm, and northwest India got 29.2?ove normal rains at 132.7 mm. However, east and northeast received 18.2?low-normal rains at 231.2 mm, and south India got only 155.7 mm rains, 2.7?low the normal, the weather bureau said. 

Currently, neutral El Nino conditions are observed over the equatorial Pacific region, indicating a 71% chance of La Nina conditions emerging during Oct-Nov, the weather bureau said. El Nino is associated with drier climate over India, while La Nina brings good rainfall over the country. The agency said there is a probability of higher rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season due to La Nina. 

 

Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean, and are likely to continue during Oct-Dec. Though Indian Ocean Dipole is a much weaker system than El Nino, positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions have the potential to offset the impacts of El Nino in small measures. End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi and Afra Abubacker

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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