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Informist, Tuesday, Sep 24, 2024

 

By Kuldeep Singh

 

NEW DELHI – The Lok Sabha elections held four months ago brought to the fore the anti-incumbency factor that the Bharatiya Janata Party is faced with in Haryana. On the other hand, a resurgent Congress seems in a strong position to give the BJP a tough fight and, at best, wrest back the state, which goes to polls on Oct 5.

 

What could truly jeopardise the saffron party's ambition of ruling Haryana for a third straight term are the anti-farmer, anti-wrestler, and anti-Dalit tags it has earned in the state over the last 10 years of rule. Resentment over the government's Agnipath scheme is also likely to play a crucial role in the election.

 

For the 90-seat state assembly, the BJP is contesting the elections under Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, while the Congress is yet to decide on a chief ministerial candidate. Saini took the reins of the state government only in March, when former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar and his council of ministers resigned amid differences between the BJP and its coalition ally in the state – Dushyant Chautala's Jannayak Janata Party.

 

Positioning Saini was a move by the BJP to consolidate the Other Backward Classes vote to counter the anti-incumbency factor. But this might not be enough.

 

Rajinder Sharma, a political analyst based in Haryana, said that the state has a track record of not giving an absolute majority to the ruling party, a pattern that is also visible in the BJP's slipping tally in the state since the 2014 assembly elections.

 

When the BJP formed the government in Haryana for the first time in 2014, it did so on its own by winning 47 of the 90 seats. In 2019, it won 40 seats, six below the majority mark, and had to stitch together an alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party, which had won 10 seats, to form a government.

 

Resentment against the BJP in the state has escalated over the past one year, following violence against farmers from Punjab and Haryana protesting against the central government's farm policies. Even before this, the party had been at the receiving end following protests by wrestlers against BJP leader and then Wrestling Federation of India chief Brij Bhushan Singh over charges of sexual harassment.

 

Sharma pointed out that most wrestlers belong to the peasant community, which makes up around 70% of the population and plays a crucial role in elections.

 

CONGRESS

If the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year are anything to go by, the Congress party's prospects of forming a government in Haryana are brighter than they have been in the last 10 years. The Congress fought the Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party, and ended up winning five of the 10 seats; the BJP won the remaining five. The Congress polled 43.6% of the popular votes, and the AAP 3.94%; collectively, they polled more than the BJP's 46.11%. The alliance gained from the consolidation of anti-BJP votes in its favour.

 

Sharma said that an analysis of the Lok Sabha election results showed the BJP was ahead on 44 of the 90 assembly segments, the Congress on 42, and AAP four.

 

The alliance with AAP, however, failed to materialise for the Vidhan Sabha elections. But most analysts say that the AAP has little or no presence in the state, and falling apart of the alliance is unlikely to dent the prospects of the Congress.

 

CASTE EQUATION

The Jat community, which has a strong 25-28% of voter base in the state, is backing former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. With such a strong vote base, the community can swing the results on either side.

 

The Congress also hopes to benefit in Dalit- and Muslim-dominated constituencies in Mewat region, said Kushal Pal, a professor of political science and principal at Indira Gandhi National College in Kurukshetra.

 

Pal said it is unlikely that Dalit votes would go towards regional parties in the state. "Caste plays an important part in Haryana politics, more than religion. The Jat and non-Jat divide helped the BJP come to power in the past. But things have changed now. The Jat consolidation seems to be behind the Congress and Dalits, too, have shifted towards the Congress party. The regional parties are unlikely to benefit despite the alliances," Pal said.

 

However, what may spoil the party for the Congress is an internal feud. Former chief minister Hooda and other senior Congress leaders Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala have been known to be at loggerheads. While Hooda has been vying for the tag of the party's chief ministerial candidate, Selja, a Lok Sabha member from Sirsa, has opposed such a move.

 

REGIONAL PARTIES

The Jannayak Janta Party and the Indian National Lok Dal of Abhay Chautala are two prominent regional parties in the state. Even though they polled fewer votes during the Lok Sabha elections, they may become significant in the event neither of the two national parties ends up with a clear-cut majority.

 

The Jannayak Janta Party has formed an alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad's Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram). The party will contest 70 seats and the Aazad Samaj Party 20. On the other hand, the Indian National Lok Dal, which has governed the state in the past, has forged an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati.

 

While it looks like the Congress may prevent the BJP from pulling off a hat-trick in Haryana, one can't say anything for sure till Oct 8, when the result of the election will be declared.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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