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Informist, Thursday, Sep 12, 2024

 

--India Jul industrial growth 4.8% vs 6.2% year ago
--Informist poll estimated India Jul industrial growth at 4.9%
--India Jul mining sector growth 3.7% vs 10.7% year ago
--India Jul manufacturing sector growth 4.6% vs 5.3% year ago
--India Jul electricity sector growth 7.9% vs 8.0% year ago
--India Jul primary goods output growth 5.9% vs 7.7% year ago
--India Jul capital goods output growth 12.0% vs 5.1% year ago
--India Jul intermediate goods output growth 6.8% vs 3.2% year ago
--India Jul infra goods output growth 4.9% vs 12.6% year ago
--India Jul consumer durables output growth 8.2% vs -3.6% yr ago
--India Jul consumer non-durables output growth -4.4% vs 8.3% yr ago
--India Jun industrial growth revised to 4.7% vs 4.2% provisional
--India Apr-Jul industrial growth 5.2% vs 5.1% year ago

 

MUMBAI - Growth in India's industrial production edged up to 4.8% in July, data released by the National Statistical Office showed today. At 4.8%, the July industrial growth figure is slightly below the consensus estimate of 4.9%, as per an Informist poll.

 

Industrial growth in June, which was provisionally estimated to be 4.2%, has now been revised upwards to 4.7%. It stood at 6.2% in July last year.

 

For the first four months of 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), India's industrial output has posted an increase of 5.2%, only slightly higher than the 5.1% it had recorded in the same period last year.

 

The marginal uptick in industrial growth in July comes on the back of a larger increase in the output of the manufacturing sector, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the Index of Industrial Production. In July, manufacturing sector output rose 4.6%, up from 3.2% the previous month. In fact, the latest data also showed that a change in the growth in manufacturing production to 3.2% from 2.6% drove a revision in the overall industrial growth rate to 4.7% from 4.2% for the month of June.

 

Although output of the manufacturing sector rose at a faster clip in July compared to June, the mining and electricity sectors witnessed a slowdown. Output of the mining sector rose just 3.7%, sharply lower than June's 10.3%, while electricity production was up 7.9%, against an increase of 8.6% in June.

 

As per use-based classification, the biggest improvement in output growth was seen in capital goods. After posting an increase of 3.8% in June, production of capital goods rose 12.0% in July – the highest in nine months – although this was aided by a favourable base. In July 2023, output of capital goods had fallen 4.9% month-on-month.

 

Output of consumer durable goods was also up a healthy 8.2% in July, with intermediate goods production higher by 6.8%. However, the increase in production of primary and infrastructure goods was lower in July compared to June.

 

Meanwhile, production of consumer non-durables continued to shrink and was down 4.4% in July, after declining by 1.5% year-on-year in June. For Apr-Jul, output of consumer non-durable goods was down 1.5%, as against an increase of 7.2% in the first four months of 2023-24.

 

"We can expect IIP growth to move up cumulatively from 5.2% up to July towards the 5.5-6.0% mark in the next couple of months and to a higher trajectory closer to 6.0-6.5%, depending on how the festival demand plays out," Madan Sabnavis, Bank of Baroda's chief economist, said.

 

The following tables detail year-on-year changes in industrial output in July (in %):

 

	Jul 2024	Jun 2024	Jul 2023
General	4.8	4.7	6.2
Mining	3.7	10.3	10.7
Manufacturing	4.6	3.2	5.3
Electricity	7.9	8.6	8.0
Primary goods	5.9	6.3	7.7
Capital goods	12.0	3.8	5.1
Intermediate goods	6.8	3.0	3.2
Infrastructure/construction goods	4.9	7.1	12.6
Consumer durables	8.2	8.7	(-)3.6
Consumer non-durables	(-)4.4	(-)1.5	8.3

 

	Mining				Electricity				Manufacturing				General
	2024-25	2023-24	2022-23	2021-22	2024-25	2023-24	2022-23	2021-22	2024-25	2023-24	2022-23	2021-22	2024-25	2023-24	2022-23	2021-22
Apr	6.8	5.1	8.4	36.5	10.2	(-)1.1	11.8	38.5	4.2	5.5	5.6	196.0	5.2	4.6	6.7	133.5
May	6.6	6.4	11.2	23.6	13.7	0.9	23.5	7.5	5.0	6.3	20.7	32.1	6.2	5.7	19.7	27.6
Jun	10.3	7.6	7.8	23.1	8.6	4.2	16.4	8.3	3.2	3.5	12.9	13.2	4.7	4.0	12.6	13.8
Jul	3.7	10.7	(-)3.3	19.5	7.9	8.0	2.3	11.1	4.6	5.3	3.1	10.5	4.8	6.2	2.2	11.5
Aug		12.3	(-)3.9	23.3		15.3	1.4	16.0		10.0	(-)0.5	11.1		10.9	(-)0.7	13.0
Sep		11.5	5.2	8.6		9.9	11.6	0.9		5.1	2.0	4.3		6.4	3.3	4.4
Oct		13.1	2.6	11.5		20.4	1.2	3.1		10.6	(-)5.8	3.3		11.9	(-)4.1	4.2
Nov		7.0	9.7	4.9		5.8	12.7	2.1		1.3	6.7	0.3		2.5	7.6	1.0
Dec		5.2	10.1	2.6		1.2	10.4	2.8		4.6	3.6	0.6		4.4	5.1	1.0
Jan		6.0	9.0	3.0		5.6	12.7	0.9		3.6	4.5	1.9		4.2	5.8	2.0
Feb		8.1	4.8	4.6		7.6	8.2	4.5		4.9	5.9	0.2		5.6	6.0	1.2
Mar		1.3	6.8	3.9		8.6	(-)1.6	6.1		5.9	1.5	1.4		5.5	1.9	2.2

 

	Mining	Manufacturing	Electricity	General
2023-24	7.5	5.5	7.1	5.9
2022-23	5.8	4.7	8.9	5.2
2021-22	12.2	11.8	7.9	11.4
2020-21	(-)7.8	(-)9.6	(-)0.5	(-)8.4
2019-20	1.6	(-)1.4	1.0	(-)0.8
2018-19	2.9	3.9	5.2	3.8
2017-18	2.3	4.6	5.4	4.4
2016-17	5.3	4.4	5.8	4.6
2015-16	4.3	2.8	5.7	3.3
2014-15	(-)1.4	3.8	14.8	4.0
2013-14	(-)0.1	3.6	6.1	3.3
2012-13	(-)5.3	4.8	4.0	3.3

 

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

 

End

 

Reported by Siddharth Upasani

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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